Kalshi,
the
U.S.
prediction
market
platform
that
just
won
a
lawsuit
against
its
regulator,
said
its
future
depends
on
being
able
to
list
election
betting
contracts
while
there’s
still
time
before
Americans
cast
their
votes
on
Nov.
5.
In
a
court
filing
Sunday,
the
New
York-based
company
pushed
back
against
the
Commodity
Futures
Trading
Commission’s
emergency
motion
to
bar
it
from
listing
such
contracts
for
another
14
days.
The
motion
is
“meritless,”
Kalshi
said,
and
granting
it
would
cause
“irreparable
harm”
to
the
company.
“That
delay—which
the
agency
would
assuredly
try
to
parlay
into
another,
then
another,
until
it
is
too
late—would
be
devastating
for
Kalshi,
which
has
staked
its
future
on
this
litigation
and
these
markets,”
the
company
told
the
U.S.
District
Court
for
the
District
of
Columbia.
Last
year,
the
CFTC
forbade
Kalshi
from
listing
contracts
on
which
party
would
control
each
house
of
Congress
after
the
election.
Such
contracts,
the
agency
said,
would
amount
to
unlawful
gaming
and
would
be
“contrary
to
the
public
interest.”
Kalshi
then
sued,
calling
the
regulator’s
decision
“arbitrary
[and]
capricious.”
In
a
ruling
handed
down
Friday,
Judge
Jia
M.
Cobb
sided
with
Kalshi
but
did
not
give
her
rationale,
which
she
said
she
would
spell
out
in
a
subsequent
opinion.
She
did
not
say
when
that
opinion
would
be
published.
Kalshi
triumphantly
declared
on
its
website:
“We
did
it!
U.S.
election
markets
are
coming
to
Kalshi.”
Hours
later,
the
CFTC
filed
its
emergency
motion
asking
Cobb
to
stay
her
order
for
14
days
following
publication
of
the
opinion.
Without
knowing
her
reasoning,
the
agency
said,
it
can’t
figure
out
whether
it
should
appeal
the
decision.
If
granted,
the
stay
would
mean
Kalshi
wouldn’t
be
allowed
to
list
election
markets
until
late
September
at
the
earliest.
The
company,
which
settles
trades
in
U.S.
dollars,
has
been
locked
out
of
this
year’s
election
betting
boom.
“The
Commission
lost,
fair
and
square,
on
the
law,”
Kalshi
said
in
its
Sunday
filing.
“It
should
not
be
allowed
to
snatch
a
procedural
victory
from
the
jaws
of
defeat
by
running
out
the
clock.”
Kalshi
is
the
only
CFTC-regulated
prediction
market
in
the
U.S.
It
lists
contracts
on
a
variety
of
events,
ranging
from
whether
U.S.
students’
test
scores
will
improve
or
worsen
to
how
high
bitcoin
will
rise
this
year.
(To
be
clear:
Trades
are
settled
in
dollars.)
PredictIt,
an
older
U.S.
site
that
also
settles
bets
in
fiat,
lists
election
contracts
under
a
narrow
regulatory
exemption.
Polymarket,
this
year’s
breakout
success
story
in
both
prediction
markets
and
cryptocurrency,
is
barred
from
doing
business
with
U.S.
residents
under
a
settlement
with
the
CFTC.
Even
so,
PredictIt
and
Polymarket
have
been
“accumulating
market
share
at
the
expense
of
law-abiding
Kalshi,”
the
company
told
the
court
Sunday.
“[A]s
Kalshi
has
waited
for
the
litigation
process
to
run
its
course,
unregulated
operations
like
Polymarket
have
taken
advantage
of
that
time
to
dominate
the
market,”
Kalshi
said.
“Further
delays
may
make
it
impossible
for
Kalshi
to
meaningfully
compete
in
this
space.”
“The
public
has
already
been
denied
these
benefits
for
over
a
year,
while
the
CFTC’s
unlawful
order
was
in
place,”
Kalshi
said.
“And
with
the
election
now
fewer
than
60
days
away,
there
has
never
been
a
more
important
time
for
those
benefits
to
materialize.”
Meanwhile,
Better
Markets,
a
lobbying
group
that
opposed
Kalshi’s
plan,
called
the
judge’s
Friday
ruling
in
Kalshi’s
favor
a
“Dangerous
Step
Towards
Allowing
Gambling
on
U.S.
Elections,
Threatening
Democracy
and
the
Integrity
of
our
Markets.”