Does World Liberty Financial Count as Trump ‘Launching a Coin’? Polymarket Bettors Are Divided

This
week
in
prediction
markets:

A
presidential
candidate
starting
a
business
on
the
campaign
trail
certainly
is
unprecedented,
but
that’s
just
what
Donald
Trump
is
set
to
do
Tuesday
morning
with
the

launch
of
his
decentralized
finance
(DeFi)
project
World
Liberty
Financial.

On
a
Monday
X
space,

the
team
behind
the
project
said
they
are
looking
to
raise
$300
million
with
the
token
sale
and
have
100,000
accredited
investors
on
the
whitelist.

Yet
a

Polymarket
contract
asking
if
Trump
will
launch
a
coin
before
the
election
gives
it
just
an
83%
chance
of
happening
–
even
though
Trump
family
members
and
associates
confirmed
a
token
is
in
the
works
during
a

September
livestream
and
the
post
on
X
announcing
the
launch
promises
the
start
of
a
public
sale.

Why
the
uncertainty?
It’s
over
whether
this
counts
as
Trump
“launching
a
coin.”

The
market’s
rules
say
it
will
resolve
to
“yes”
if
“conclusive,
definitive
evidence
emerges
that
Donald
Trump
was
involved
in
the
deployment
of
a
new
token
by”
Election
Day,
“based
on
a
consensus
of
credible
sources.”

Some
are
contesting
Trump’s
“involvement.”

One
holder
by
the
name
of
Asherwow,
who
holds
over
8,700
shares
of
the
“No”
side
of
the
contract,
argued
in
Polymarket’s
comment
section
that
“being
an
affiliate
does
not
necessarily
mean
you
are
involved
in
the
deployment
of
the
coin.”

Trump
would
have
to
be
more
than
having
an
“indirect
business
relation”
for
it
to
count,
Asherwow
wrote.

Another
No
holder
by
the
name
of
Lawyered.eth
points
to
language
from
the
white
paper,

first
reported
by
CoinDesk,
which
reads:
“World
Liberty
Financial
is
not
owned,
managed,
operated,
or
sold
by
Donald
J.
Trump,
the
Trump
Organization,
or
any
of
their
respective
family
members,
affiliates,
or
principals…
World
Liberty
Financial
and
$WLFI
are
not
political
and
have
no
affiliation
with
any
political
campaign.”

Those
on
the
yes
side,
however,
use
a
more
liberal
definition
of
“involvement,”
and
say
the
doubters
are
being
pedantic.

“Should
he
also
write
the
smart
contract
himself
and
deploy
the
liquidity
to
Uniswap?”
asked
one
Yes
holder.

When
the
contract
resolves
after
Nov.
4,
should
there
be
a
dispute
on
the
outcome,
it
will
be
sent
over
to
UMA,
a
decentralized
oracle
service
that
referees
the
platform’s
crypto-based
prediction
markets.
UMA
token
holders
vote
on
the
resolution,

though
Polymarket
has
overruled
UMA
before.

Trump’s
odds
of
winning
the
2024
U.S.
election
surged
this
month,
bringing
what
was
a
tie
in
the
first
week
of
October
to
what’s
now
a
nearly
8.5
percentage
point
gap
in
the
Polymarket
odds.

Meanwhile,
in
the
last
two
weeks,
the
TRUMP
(MAGA)
token
is
up
63%,

according
to
CoinGecko
data,
outperforming
the

CoinDesk
20
(CD20),
a
market
index
that
measures
the
performance
of
the
largest
digital
assets,
which
is
down
2%.

In
an
interview
with
CoinDesk,
Steven
Steele,
the
MAGA
project’s
marketing
director,
said
part
of
the
token’s
appeal
is
that
it
has
more
room
to
grow
than
Trump’s
Polymarket
odds,
which
have
less
upside
the
higher
they
climb.

“Buying
TRUMP
as
a
bet
on
Donald
Trump
winning
the
election
now
becomes
more
attractive,
pushing
more
capital
into
TRUMP,”
Steele
said
in
an
interview
with
CoinDesk.
“This
offers
significantly
more
upside
than
betting
markets.”

On
the
other
hand,
if
Trump
wins,
Polymarket
traders
who
bet
on
his
victory
are
entitled
to
$1
worth
of
crypto
for
every
“yes”
share
they
hold,
whereas
meme
coins
guarantee
no
payout
and
trade
solely
on
vibes.

There
have
been
other
attempts
to
amplify
the
upside
of
prediction
markets
in
the
form
of
decentralized
exchanges
(DEXs),

adding
leverage
to
Polymarket
contracts.

Market
data,
however,
shows
this
hasn’t
really
caught
on
quite
yet.

Checking
DEX
D8X’s
leveraged
prediction
market
shows
low
open
interest
available
and
a
maximum
2x
leverage
to
those
wanting
to
trade
the
Trump
“yes”
side.

Meanwhile,
the
TRUMP
token
has
had
nearly
$9.3
million
in
trading
volume
during
the
last
24
hours,
according
to
CoinGecko
data,
pushing
its
market
cap
over
$200
million.

Canada’s
Prime
Minister,
Justin
Trudeau,

is
facing
a
revolt
by
high-ranking
Liberal
members
of
parliament
and
the
continued
threat
of
a
non-confidence
motion
–
a
feature
of
the
Westminster
system
where
opposition
parties
can
topple
governments
–
but
Polymarket
bettors
don’t
think
there
will
be
an
#election2024
in
the
Great
White
North.

Around
20
Liberal
MPs
have
reportedly
signed
a
document
urging
Trudeau
to
step
down,
expressing
concerns
over
declining
poll
numbers.

Canadian
pollster
Angus
Reid
gives
Trudeau
a
30%
approval
rating.
Surely
with
a
minority
government,
where
opposition
parties,
combined,
have
more
seats
than
the
ruling
party,
this
would
make
for
election
season,
right?

Not
quite.

Although
the
Liberals
hold
only
a
minority
of
seats,
they
have
managed
to
maintain
power
with
the
support
of
at
least
one
other
party
during
confidence
votes.

Both
the
Bloc
Quebecois
and
the
NDP
have
recently

declined
to
back
a
Conservative-led
non-confidence
motion,
with
Bloc
leader
Yves-Francois
Blanchet
and
NDP
leader
Jagmeet
Singh
signaling
they
would
not
risk
triggering
an
election
that
could
favor
the
Conservatives.

Polymarket
bettors
give
approximately
the
same
chances
of
that
happening
as
an
election.

So
even
though
Trudeau,
personally,
remains
unpopular,
until
Canada’s
other
opposition
parties
push
for
a
motion
of
non-confidence,
the
status
quo
likely
remains.