UPDATE: Polymarket Logs First $100M Month as Election Drama Heats Up

This
week
in
prediction
markets:

Polymarket’s
volume
soared
well
past
$100
million
in
June,
a
record
month
during
a
breakout
year
for
the
crypto-based
prediction
market
platform.

A
total
of
$111
million
in
bets
were
placed
on
Polymarket
last
month,
according
to
Dune
Analytics
data.
It
was
by
far
the
best
month
ever
for
the
company,
which
celebrated
its
four-year
anniversary
last
month
and
is
riding
high
on
enthusiasm
for
the
November
U.S.
election.

The
most
recent
catalyst
is
President
Joe
Biden’s
performance
at
last
week’s
presidential
debate,
an
unmitigated
disaster.

The
New
York
Times’
editorial
board,
usually
a
source
of
stalwart
support
for
a
Democratic
White
House,
is

calling
on
him
to
step
down.
A
CBS/YouGov
poll
says

72%
of
voters
believe
Biden
does
not
have
the
cognitive
health
to
serve
as
President.

Biden’s
odds
of
becoming
President
dropped
from
33.5%
pre-debate
to
18%
as
of
Monday
morning
U.S.
time,
with
Trump
solidifying
his
lead
at
63%.

Another
contract,
this
one
about
the

possibility
of
Biden
dropping
out
of
the
race
entirely,
also
rocketed
off
in
trading
volume
post-debate,
with
“yes”
shares
hitting
44
cents
in
the
hours
after,
up
from
19
cents
prior.

Each
share
pays
out
$1
(in
the
USDC
stablecoin)
if
the
prediction
comes
true
and
zero
if
not,
so
the
44
cent
price
indicated
a
44%
probability
Biden
would
bow
out.

A
story
from
NBC
that
Biden
was
to
spend
the
weekend
with
his
family
at
the
Mount
David
Presidential
retreat
to
discuss
the
future
of
his
campaign
pushed
the
odds
up
to
50%.

Those
odds
leveled
out
to
just
over
40%
as
of
Monday
morning
U.S.
time
as
over
the
weekend
the
White
House
pushed
back
on
reports,
saying
the
trip
was
pre-planned.

For
his
part,
President
Biden
is
adamant
that
he
will
remain
in
the
race.

“I
understand
the
concern
after
the
debate.
I
get
it,”

NPR
quoted
the
President
as
saying
to
a
room
full
of
donors.
“I
didn’t
have
a
great
night.
But
I’m
going
to
be
fighting
harder
and
going
to
need
you
with
me
to
get
it
done.”

The
contract
has
attracted
serious
political
bettors,
with
the
largest
holders
on
both
sides
of
the
digital
aisle
largely
betting
on
politics-themed
markets.

“Therealbatman,”
the
largest
No
holder,
holds
$2.9
million
in
different
political
contracts,
consistently
betting
that
Biden
and
Trump
will
win
their
respective
nominations,
that
Biden
will
win
the
popular
vote,
and
that
Trump
won’t
win
the
U.S.
Presidential
Election.

The
only
exception
to
Therealbatman’s
largely
political
portfolio
involves
a
$50,000
bet
that
the
Eigen
token,
the
native
token
for
the
Eigenlayer
protocol,

won’t
be
transferable
before
former
Binance
CEO
Changpeng
“CZ”
Zhao,
gets
out
of
prison.

On
the
other
side
of
the
aisle,
the
largest
holder
of
the
“yes”
side
of
the
Biden
drop-out
contract,
an
anonymous
user
only
known
by
his
or
her

Ethereum
wallet
address,
holds
a
$184,000
position
on
Biden’s
fate,
as
well
as
a
$6,200
stake
that
Michelle
Obama
will
with
the
Democratic
nomination.

This
user
also
has
a
$9,700
bet
that
longshot
independent
candidate
Robert
F.
Kennedy
Jr.
will
win
the
presidential
election,
which
is
currently
trading
at
2
cents.

Traders
on
prediction
markets
have
mixed
opinions
on
where
the
price
of
bitcoin
is
going.

In
the
short
term:
stability.

A

Polymarket
contract
gives
bitcoin
a
78%
chance
of
being
above
$61,000
by
July
5.

For
reference,

CoinDesk
Indices
data
had
bitcoin
trading
above
$63,300
for
most
of
the
Monday
business
day
in
Asia,
a
marked
recovery
from
its

tests
below
$60,000
as
last
week
began.

CoinDesk
Indices’

Bitcoin
Trend
Indicator
notes
that
the
world’s
largest
digital
asset
is
in
a
period
of
“significant
downtrend.”

Here’s
where
things
start
to
get
complicated.
The
markets
“tea
leaves”
that
bettors
are
trying
to
read
put
us
in
for
a
correction
before
a
rally
that
might
test
BTC’s
all-time
high.

First,

one
contract
on
the
U.S.-regulated
Kalshi
platform
projects
a
65%
chance
of
bitcoin
dipping
below
$50,000
by
the
end
of
2024
and
a
22%
chance
of
it
reaching
below
$40,000.
At
the
same
time,

another
contract
projects
a
70%
chance
of
BTC
hitting
$75,000
or
above
by
the
end
of
the
year.

Unlike
Polymarket,
which
does
business
almost
everywhere
except
the
U.S.,
Kalshi
is
U.S.-only,
and
its
bets
are
settled
in
dollars.

There
are
a
couple
of
indicators
that
the
market
expects
bitcoin’s
price
to
be

challenged
by
continued
dollar
strength.
This
will
certainly

subside
once
the
Federal
Reserve
begins
to
cut
rates,
which
bettors
are
almost
certain
will
happen
by
the
last
quarter.

Boeing
has
had
a
tough
time
on
Earth
and
its
troubles
seem
to
have
extended
past
the
confines
of
the
planet.

The
troubled
aerospace
giant’s
first
space
capsule
is
stuck
at
the
International
Space
Station
(ISS)
after
helium
leaks
and
thruster
issues
have
kept
it

docked
without
a
definite
return
date.
Starliner’s
trip

was
supposed
to
conclude
on
June
13.

Bettors
think
that
the
astronauts
will
be
on
the
ISS
for
some
time
longer,
with
a
Polymarket
contract
giving

only
an
11%
chance
of
the
astronauts
departing
on
the
Starliner
by
July
21.

The
market’s
fine
print
says
that
the
astronauts
must
depart
on
Boeing’s
Starliner.
A
rescue
vessel
from
SpaceX
or
Russia
won’t
count.
Nor
does
it
specify
that
the
astronauts
would
have
to
safely
return
to
Earth.

UPDATE
(July
1,
19:49
UTC):
Adds
data
about
Polymarket’s
monthly
volume
record,
updates
headline.