The Protocol: Blockchain Tech Predictions for 2024, Er… Best Guesses

This
year’s
crypto-market
doldrums
brought
little
respite
from
the
announcements,
product
rollouts,
integrations,
partnerships,
collaborations,
fundraisings,
launches,
deployments,
migrations,
transitions.
There’s
a
lot
of
information,
all
quite
technical
and
complex;
as
hard
as
it
can
be
to
catch
up,
keeping
up
is
equally
daunting.
Imagine

piloting
a
spaceship
through
a
dense
asteroid
field
while
playing
a
game
of

Concentration
with
the
individual
asteroids;
pattern
recognition
might
be
your
only
hope.
A
few
key
2023
trends
were
broadly
foreseen
by
the
experts.
Many
weren’t.
Truth
be
told,
nobody
really
knows
where
all
of
this
is
going.

BUT
why
not
try?
At
least?
Check
out
The
Protocol’s
FIRST
ANNUAL
list
of

blockchain
tech
predictions
for
the
coming
year.

ALSO:
Ledger
lamentations
and
Bitcoin’s
Ordinals
ordeal.

This
article
is
featured
in
the
latest
issue
of


The
Protocol,
our
weekly
newsletter
exploring
the
tech
behind
crypto,
one
block
at
a
time.


Sign
up
here

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get
it
in
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inbox
every
Wednesday.
Also
please
check
out
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weekly


The
Protocol

podcast.

THE
PROTOCOL’S
FIRST
ANNUAL
LIST
OF
BLOCKCHAIN
TECH
PREDICTIONS:
Out
of
all
the
roadmaps,
tea
leaves
and
best
guesses
inundating
our
inbox
over
the
past
couple
weeks,
we
curated
10
prognostications
from
blockchain
tech
gurus
for
the
coming
year.
Yes,
it’s
brain-hurting
stuff,
and
maybe
some
of
it
will
happen.
We’ve
got
decent
sources
at
least.
Ripple
Labs’
David
Schwartz
sees
“interoperability”
as
a
dominant
theme;
Abdelhamid
Bakhta,
lead
and
core
Ethereum
developer,
Starknet
ecosystem,
likes
“modularity.”
Go


here
for
the
full
list.

LEDGER
HACK
LEDGER:

Highlighting
blockchain
tech
upgrades
and
developments.

1.
Avail,
a
rival
to
Celestia
in
the
race
to
offer
data
solutions
in
the
Ethereum
blockchain
ecosystem,

reached
agreement
with
top
developer
Starkware
to
play
a
key
role
in
new
networks
starting
next
year.
Under
the
agreement
disclosed
Wednesday,
Avail
will
provide
its
“data
availability”
solution
to
new
application-chains
built
using
Starkware’s
Madara,
a
so-called

decentralized
sequencer.
Starkware
is
the
main
developer
behind
StarkNet,
a

leading
layer-2
blockchain
in
the
Ethereum
ecosystem.

2.


Lyra
V2
has
built
its
own
custom
chain
on
the
Optimism
stack,

according
to
the
team:
“Lyra
now
offers
ultra
fast
trading
and
execution
and
continues
to
be
fully
custodial
and
keeping
all
funds
and
financial
logic
on-chain.
Lyra
V1
accounted
for
60%
of
the
decentralized
options
volume,
trading
over
$1.5bn
in
notional
volume.
Lyra
V2
has
upgraded
to
a
professional-grade
UX
and
is
beginning
to
target
centralized
exchange
users
with
its
new
protocol.
Key
features:
portfolio
margin,
cross-asset
collateral,
gasless
transactions.

3.
Stellar,
the
layer-1
blockchain,
announced
that
its
planned
upgrade
to
introduce
smart
contract
functionality
will
occur
in
a
phased
rollout
over
the
first
half
of
2024,
with
the
network’s
validator
vote
on
the
upgrade
taking
place
on
Jan.
30,
according
to
the
team:
“To
ensure
the
launch
provides
a

high-quality
experience
for
builders,
Stellar
will
evaluate
trial
contract
deployment
and
communicate
to
developers
when
the
smart
contract
platform
(known
as

Soroban)
reaches
a
user-ready
level
of
transactions
per
second
facilitation.”

4.
Pontem
will

launch
its
layer-2
network,

Lumio,
“to
solve
Ethereum’s
scalability
challenges
and
usher
in
a
Web2-like
experience
on
Web3
for
millions
of
users,”
according
to
the
team.
“Pontem’s
L2
can
effectively
increase
transaction
bandwidth,
uniting
the
advantages
of
high
TPS
chains
like
Aptos
with
the
security
and
liquidity
of
Ethereum
with
the
purpose
of
scaling
Ethereum
horizontally
to
meet
the
needs
of
millions
and
eventually
billions
of
users
concurrently.”
According
to
a
press
release
seen
by
CoinDesk,
Lumio
is
based
on
Optimism’s
OP
Stack
framework,
and
features
a
“Move
and
EVM
compatible
runtime
that
allows
developers
to
leverage
the
benefits
of
the
Move
language
on
Ethereum
while
still
supporting
the
Solidity
ecosystem.”

5.


Intersect,
a
member-based
organization
for
the

Cardano
ecosystem,
has
announced
the
planned
migration
of
the
core
Cardano
codebase
to
its
stewardship,
according
to
the
team.

See
the
entire
Protocol
Village
list
from
this
past
week
here.

Funraisings

Deals
and
grants

Data
and
tokens

Regulatory
and
Policy

Over
the
past
few
weeks
in
The
Protocol,
we’ve
documented
how
Ordinals
inscriptions,
colloquially
known
as
“NFTs
on
Bitcoin,”
are
adored
by
fans,

appreciated
by
fee-hungry
miners,
and
hated
by
some

blockchain
purists.
A
big
hit
earlier
in
the
year,
they’ve
now
fully
caught
a
“second
wind,”
as
Reflexivity
Research
put
it,
helping
to

drive
up
Bitcoin
transaction
fees
to
an

all-time
high.
They’ve
also
gone
mainstream:
Last
week,
a
trio
of
Ordinals
inscriptions
from
the
“BitcoinShrooms”
collection
–
two
Super-Mario-Style
mushroom
characters
and
a
pixelated
avocado
–
sold
at
the
famed
Sotheby’s
auction
house

for
about
$450,000,
or
five
times
the
highest
estimates;
needless
to
say,
there
are
plans
for
more
sales
soon.
The
inscriptions
fad
has
even
spread
to
other
blockchains,
with
similar
technology
clogging
up
networks
including

Arbitrum,
Avalanche,
Cronos,

zkSync,
The
Open
Network
and
Celestia,
according
to
the
analysis
firm
FundStrat.
Greg
Cipolaro,
head
of
research
at
Nydig,
noted
in
a

report
just
how
backed
up
Bitcoin’s
“mempool”
–
the
backlog
of
transactions
waiting
to
get
processed
–
has
become.
“The
transaction
queue
stretches
across
an
astonishing
372
blocks,
equating
to
nearly
2.6
days
based
on
an
assumption
of
144
blocks
per
day,”
Cipolaro
wrote.
The
takeaway?
Users
will
have
to
pay
up
to
get
those
transactions
cleared
faster.
“Fees
are
now
playing
a
much
more
substantial
role
in
miner
revenue,”
according
to
Cipolaro.
The
extra
revenue
could
help
to
offset
the
expected
impact
of
next
year’s
“halving,”
when
block
rewards
are
set
to
automatically
adjust
lower
by
50%.
But
the
scenario
could
also
force
a
deep
rethink
(or
revolt)
on
the
part
of
users
or
businesses
who
may
have
predicated
plans
on
the
expectation
of
cheap
transactions.

Bitcoin’s
transaction
backlog
known
as
the
“mempool”
has
swelled,
partly
due
to
the
impact
of
congestion
from
Ordinals
inscriptions.
(Mempool.space)