Bitcoin’s (BTC) near-term outlook appears constructive as blockchain data show short-term holders of the cryptocurrency are moving coins at a profit.
The seven-day moving average of the short-term holder’s (STH) spent output profit ratio (SOPR) has recently moved back above 1, according to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode.
“After a brief stint of coins moving at a loss, STH-SOPR is now back above 1,” analysts at Blockware Solutions said in a weekly newsletter. “This is bullish for near-term price action as it shows capitulation from short-term holders.”
The short-term holder SOPR of more than 1 means the average short-term holder in the market is selling coins at a profit. A reading below 1 is considered a sign of capitulation, while a reading of 1 indicates the average short-term holder is just breaking even.
The SOPR is calculated by dividing the realized dollar value of a spent output (UTXO) by the value at output creation to reflect the degree of realized profit for all coins moved on-chain. The short-term holder SOPR is focused on all wallets that have held onto their coins for less than 155 days.
The STH SOPR has historically stayed above 1 during bull markets. That’s understandable, as rallies allow short-term holders – mostly new entrants, active traders or weak hands – to liquidate their holdings at a price higher than the acquisition cost.
Besides, the area around 1 tends to act as a support level during bull runs, as holders, expecting continued price rallies, see their cost basis as a profitable buying opportunity. On the flip side, level 1 acts as resistance during bearish trends.
The STH SOPR crossed above 1 in January, signaling a bullish trend reversal and has since tested the support twice. Bitcoin has rallied over 68% this year, according to CoinDesk data. At press time, the cryptocurrency was trading near $27,900, having put in a high of $28,441 during the overnight trade, CoinDesk data show.
Bitcoin’s long-term holders also turned profitable a month ago, signaling a major bullish period ahead.