Sometime
in
the
next
few
weeks,
the
Republicans
and
Democrats
will
announce
their
respective
presidential
candidates’
running
mates
as
the
U.S.
gears
up
for
the
November
election.
On
crypto-based
prediction
platform
Polymarket,
there’s
currently
$13.7
million
pledged
toward
figuring
out
who
the
Republican
vice
presidential
candidate
might
be,
but
the
market
is
far
from
forming
a
consensus.
South
Carolina
Senator
Tim
Scott
is
leading
the
pack
with
23%.
But
contracts
for
“other
man”
and
“other
woman”
have
a
collective
25%.
Other
high-profile
Republicans
aren’t
even
cracking
the
double
digits.
Marco
Rubio
is
at
4%,
while
Vivek
Ramaswamy
–
who
holds
more
name
recognition
with
the
Discord
crowd
than
the
general
electorate
–
is
at
3%
but
with
$1.1
million
bet
on
him
specifically.
Robert
F.
Kennedy,
Jr.,
best
known
for
his
staunch
anti-vax
views,
is
at
2%.
While
the
scion
of
a
Democratic
dynasty
hasn’t
quite
defected
to
the
GOP,
the
Twitterati
had
floated
the
idea
of
a
unity
ticket
with
Trump
and
Kennedy,
though,
again,
that
idea
is
farfetched
and
the
market
is
reflecting
its
unlikelihood.
Free
money?
Under
a
regulatory
settlement,
Polymarket
prohibits
users
that
reside
in
the
United
States,
which
creates
the
possibility
that
the
platform’s
bettors
might
not
be
the
best
informed
out
there
on
the
topic
of
American
politics.
An
uninformed
market
might
be
creating
price
discrepancies
where
there’s
a
lag
between
a
realistic
chance
of
something
happening
and
the
market
price
–
in
other
words,
opportunities
for
free
money.
Prediction
market
trading
house
CSP
Trading
may
have
found
such
an
instance,
highlighting
in
a
post
on
X
(formerly
Twitter)
that
Polymarket
is
giving
only
a
90%
chance
that
a
Democrat
will
take
New
York.
If
90%
sounds
high,
consider
that
the
last
Republican
to
win
the
state
was
Ronald
Reagan
in
1984.
Polls
show
that
Biden
will
take
the
state
by
10
points,
and
while
that
margin
is
narrowing,
it’s
still
a
healthy
lead.
There
may
be
a
narrative
that
urban
New
York’s
ailment
of
crime
and
chaos
is
caused
by
ultra-progressive
politics,
with
a
ruling
elite
more
concerned
about
pronouns
in
email
signatures
than
the
plight
of
the
working
stiff.
But
the
answer
to
this
has
been
a
slate
of
moderate
Democrats
at
all
levels
of
government,
and
voters
have
been
receptive
to
them.
So
the
idea
that
an
anti-Democrat
protest
vote
would
form
seems
like
a
longshot,
perhaps
wishful
thinking
among
some
of
the
terminally
online.
Contracts
for
other
deep
blue
states
are
presenting
similar
numbers.
The
market
thinks
that
there’s
a
92%
chance
California
goes
Democrat;
a
10%
chance
a
Republican
will
take
Washington
state;
and
a
93%
chance
a
Republican
will
take
West
Virginia.
Historically
these
are
all
states
that
have
some
of
the
longest
single-party
voting
streaks.
California,
for
instance,
has
consistently
voted
Democrat
since
1992
when
it
decided
to
go
for
Bill
Clinton
over
a
second
term
of
George
H.W.
Bush
and
has
stayed
that
way
since.
Certainly,
California
had
its
Republican
moments
from
1952
to
1988,
but
current
polls
have
it
as
a
definite
landslide
for
President
Joe
Biden
and
the
Democrats.
But
why
look
a
gift
horse
in
the
mouth?
Betting
Yes
on
Polymarket’s
“Dems
win
New
York”
contract
stands
to
pay
out
around
a
10%
return
–
far
more
than
one
would
get
from
a
high-interest
savings
account.
Hedging
the
weather
Betting
on
the
weather
might
seem
as
degenerate
as
betting
on
the
chance
of
a
specific
crypto
project
launching
an
airdrop
this
year.
Compulsive
gamblers
looking
for
something
new
to
bet
on,
the
critics
might
say.
Except
it’s
not.
Weather
derivatives
are
one
of
the
oldest,
most
primitive
forms
of
prediction
markets
as
they
are
a
way
to
hedge
against
extreme
conditions
causing
crop
failure.
With
climate
change
causing
2023
to
be
the
warmest
year
on
record,
with
freak,
violent
storms,
and
unexpected
cold
snaps,
there’s
a
new
level
of
unpredictability
–
and
urgency
–
involved
in
this.
Kalshi,
the
only
regulated
prediction
market
platform
in
the
U.S.,
has
contracts
for
the
day’s
weather
in
a
number
of
major
American
cities.
When
we
think
about
weather
derivatives
and
hedging,
we
often
associate
that
with
quants
hired
by
major
food
conglomerates
trying
to
make
hedges
in
the
hundreds
of
millions
of
dollars.
Kalshi’s
dollar-based
contracts
can
do
this
at
a
smaller
level,
enough
for
a
mom-and-pop
shop
selling
something
seasonal.
An
ice
cream
shop
might
want
to
hedge
against
a
day
of
rain,
or
a
shop
selling
fall
and
winter
apparel
could
prepare
for
a
late
summer
and
unseasonably
warm
spring.
While
you
can’t
control
the
weather,
you
can
still
do
something
about
it.
And,
lastly…
Punters
on
Polymarket
are
betting
on
Donald
Trump
dropping
the
crypto
B-bomb
in
an
upcoming
rally.
Some
crypto
people
are
apparently
planning
to
hold
a
picture
of
the
meme
coin
BODEN,
a
Joe
Biden
riff
which
commands
a
$240
million
market
capitalization
as
of
Monday
morning,
at
a
Trump
rally.
The
idea
is
to
get
Trump
to
spot
a
large
poster
of
Boden
and
call
it
hilarious
–
which
punters
think
could
pump
their
BODEN
bags.
BODEN
is
inspired
by
Spoderman,
a
poorly
drawn
version
of
Spider-Man,
which
in
turn
is
an
homage
to
Dolan,
a
bastardized
version
of
Donald
Duck
with
an
attitude
problem,
should
you
be
wondering.
