What Does Trump’s Win Mean for Crypto?

Donald
Trump
and
the
Republican
Party
at
large
had
a
strong
2024
election,
winning
the
presidency,
Senate
and
House.
This
almost
certainly
guarantees
crypto
legislation
will
advance
and
become
law
sometime
in
the
next
two
years.
It
also
heralds
a
potentially
softer
approach
from
regulators
toward
the
sector.

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Last
week
Donald
Trump
won
his
second
presidential
race
in
three
tries.

The
U.S.
—
and
global
—
crypto
industry
will
be
watching
to
see
just
how,
exactly,
Trump
shapes
policies
and
regulations
around
the
sector
and
what
that
means
for
businesses.

There
are
a
few
broad
conclusions
I
think
we
can
draw
based
on
the
results
so
far.

1.
The
crypto
industry
confirmed
that
in
a
post-Citizens
United
world,
money
talks.

Fairshake
dumped
$40
million
into
Senator-elect
Bernie
Moreno’s
Ohio
race
against
incumbent
Senator
Sherrod
Brown.
Brown
ran
ahead
of
Democrats’
presidential
candidate,
Kamala
Harris,
but
ultimately
still
lost
his
seat
amid
Republicans’
broader
sweep
last
week.

Overall,
Fairshake
has
backed
over
50
candidates
who
won
their
races,
and
may
see
just
five
candidates
lose
their
general
election
races
(as
of
press
time,
that
number
is
three;
California’s
45th
district
and
Alaska’s
at-large
district
are
still
counting
votes).

We’ll
have
a
deeper
analysis
on
Fairshake
and
its
track
record
soon.

2.
The
chances
of
some
kind
of
crypto
bill
passing
have
gone
up.

Republicans
will
hold
the
House,
Senate
and
White
House.
While
crypto
probably
won’t
be
priority
number
one,
the
chances
of
some
kind
of
crypto
legislation
—
whether
that’s
a
new
version
of
the
Financial
Innovation
and
Technology
for
the
21st
Century
Act
(aka
FIT21),
a
stablecoin
bill,
a
Bitcoin
strategic
reserve
bill
or
something
else
entirely
—
passing
through
the
legislative
process
and
becoming
law
have
increased
dramatically.

Just
what
that
bill
may
actually
be
is
less
clear.

Industry
groups
are
coordinating
to
get
on
the
same
page,
said
Kristin
Smith,
CEO
of
the
Blockchain
Association,
a
lobbying
organization.

“This
is
the
time
to
get
the
policy
done.
We’re
really
excited,”
she
said.

3.
We
still
don’t
know
who
may
lead
the
Securities
and
Exchange
Commission,
Treasury
Department
or
Commodity
Futures
Trading
Commission.

These
are
probably
the
three
entities
most
directly
of
interest
to
the
crypto
industry.
Trump
has
named
a
number
of
his
future
Cabinet
nominees,
including

Representative
Matt
Gaetz
as
attorney
general,
Robert
F.
Kennedy
Jr.
to
run
the
Department
of
Health
and
Human
Services
and

Pete
Hegseth
to
run
the
Department
of
Defense

While
some
names
have
floated
around
for
some
of
these
financial
regulator
roles,
we
don’t
yet
know
who
will
actually
receive
the
nods
or
how
they’ll
direct
policy.

On
the
SEC
front
in
particular,
a
new
chair
may
not
mean
that
the
regulator’s
active
cases
against
exchanges
like
Coinbase,
Kraken
or
Binance
are
immediately
dismissed.

There
are
many
ways
the
cases
could
be
settled,
Smith
said,
but
“I
don’t
think
it’s
a
guarantee”
that
they
will
be
settled
or
settled
quickly.

Former
SEC
attorneys
and
staff
agree,
Jesse
Hamilton
reported.

And,
of
course,
if
Congress
passes
a
bill
directing
the
CFTC
to
become
a
primary
market
regulator
for
some
digital
assets,
whoever
heads
that
agency
up
will
have
a
lot
of
sway
over
how
exactly
that
happens.

If
you’ve
got
thoughts
or
questions
on
what
I
should
discuss
next
week
or
any
other
feedback
you’d
like
to
share,
feel
free
to
email
me
at

nik@coindesk.com
or
find
me
on
Bluesky

@nikhileshde.bsky.social.

You
can
also
join
the
group
conversation
on

Telegram.

See
ya’ll
next
week!