Trump Widens Lead Over With Biden (on Polymarket and PredictIt) After Courting Crypto Vote

This
week
in
prediction
markets:

Taking
a
strong
pro-crypto
stance
may
have
strengthened
Donald
Trump’s
lead
over
incumbent
president
Joe
Biden
–
at
least
if
you
go
by
the
prediction
markets.

In
the
past
week,
Trump
has

promised
to
commute
the
sentence
of
Silk
Road
founder
Ross
Ulbricht
–
a
figure
near
and
dear
to
many
in
the
crypto
community
–
and

vowed
to
make
the
U.S.
a
leader
in
the
digital
assets
industry.
It’s
a
markedly
more
solicitous
stance
than
the
Biden
administration
has
taken.

Over
the
same
period,

Biden
“yes”
shares
on
PredictIt,
an
election
betting
platform
popular
among
retail
traders
that
settles
trades
in
dollars,
have
slipped
from
46
cents
to
44
cents.
Each
share
pays
out
$1
if
Biden
is
reelected,
and
nothing
if
he
loses.
Effectively,
the
44
cent
price
means
the
market
sees
a
44%
chance
he
will
be
re-elected.

Crypto-based
Polymarket,
which
technically
bans
U.S.
residents
from
using
its
service,
has
shown
a
similar
shift
in
the
odds.

Trump

has
gained
two
percentage
points
on
the
platform
over
seven
days,
putting
his
odds
at
56%,
while
Biden
is
down
two
percentage
points,
at
37%.

The
polls
have
shown
neither
as
dramatic
a
gap
between
the
two
candidates,
nor
as
dramatic
a
shift
in
the
last
week.
Trump’s
polling
lead
has
climbed
just
80
basis
points,
to
1.7%,
according
to

FiveThirtyEight
averages.
Proponents
of
prediction
markets
argue
that
they
can
be
a
more
reliable
gauge
of
sentiment
and
forecasting
tool
because
unlike
people
answering
questions
on
the
phone,
bettors
have
skin
in
the
game.

The
markets
have
also
taken
an
interest
in
North
Dakota
governor
Doug
Burgum
as
a
possible
running
mate
for
Trump.

Burgum

has
been
a
recent
speaker
at
Trump
rallies
and
the
subject
of
a

Wall
Street
Journal
profile
where

Republican
insiders
describe
him
as
a
“rich
guy
with
rich
friends,
which
goes
a
long
way
with
Trump.”

On
Polymarket,
Burgum
shares
are
up
three
percentage
points,
currently
trading
at
18%,
or
18
cents,

while
on
PredictIt,
they
are
down
slightly,
trading
at
15
cents.

On
both
platforms,
Burgum
trails
Tim
Scott,
who’s
maintaining
a
lead
of
23%
on
PredictIt,
and
27%
on
Polymarket,
well
ahead
of
establish
Republicans
like
Marco
Rubio,
at
10%
on
Polymarket,
or
Nikki
Haley,
at
4%.

An
arcane
dispute
has
arisen
on
Polymarket
regarding
the
resolution
of
the
contract
over
whether
the
U.S.
Securities
and
Exchange
Commission
would
bless
ether
ETFs.
Bettors
are
clashing
over
whether
“approval”
means
only
the
19b-4
forms
or
also
the
S-1
filings.

Rather
unexpectedly,
the
SEC

asked
last
week
for
updated
19b-4
filings
from
prospective
issuers
of
Ethereum
exchange-traded
funds
(ETFs).
Days
later,
these
filings
–
critical
documents
in
the
approval
process
–

were
green-lit
by
the
SEC,
stunning
longtime
analysts.
It
was
thought
that
the

SEC’s
uncertain
view
on
ether’s
status
as
a
security
would
delay
things.

But
as
baseball
legend
Yogi
Berra
said,
it
ain’t
over
’til
it’s
over.

Although
the
SEC
has
approved
the
19b-4
forms
for
the
ETFs,
it
must
still
approve
the
S-1
filings
before
trading
can
begin,
James
Seyffart,
ETF
analyst
at
Bloomberg
Intelligence,

told
CoinDesk.

“ETFs
are
not
considered
‘approved’
until
both
the
relevant
registration
form
(such
as
S-1,
N-1A,
or
N-2)
&
the
19b-4
filing
have
been
signed
off
on
by
the
SEC,”
Matthew
Sigel,
VanEck’s
head
of
research,

posted
on
X
(formerly
Twitter).

Despite
these
bureaucratic
technicalities,
the
Polymarket
contract,
which
received
over
$13
million
in
bets,
still
resolved
to
“yes,”
meaning
the
contract’s
“oracle,”
or
referee,
decided
the
matter
was
settled.

And
that
has
led
to
some
long-shot
money
being
made.

One
user
going
by
the
handle

Paperliss,
who
bought
in
near
the
bottom
of
the
market
at
7
cents,
turned
just
over
$300
into
$4,358
for
a
return
of
1,329%.

Meanwhile,
the
largest
holder
of
“Yes”
shares
in
the
contract,

notgonnatrickme,
posted
a
return
of
61%,
bringing
his
or
her
bet
of
just
over
$10,000
to
a
value
of
$16,902
when
the
contract
closed.