But
we
want
to
get
an
idea
of
whether
economic
trends
are
returning
to
normal.
Because,
if
they
are,
it
means
the
Fed
can
also
return
interest
rates
back
to
more
normal
levels.
So,
let’s
look
at
what
the
pace
of
monthly
growth
has
done
the
last
few
years
relative
to
the
pre-pandemic
average.
In
2021-2022,
when
inflation
was
exploding
higher,
the
average
pace
of
monthly
growth
was
0.6%.
In
other
words,
CPI
expanded
at
roughly
7.2%
per
year.
But
as
interest
rates
shot
up,
the
pace
of
monthly
growth
has
slowed.
In
2023,
the
average
month-over-month
growth
was
0.3%,
or
3.6%
annualized,
while
year-to-date
it
has
averaged
0.2%,
or
2.4%
annualized.
For
pre-COVID
levels,
I
ran
the
numbers
from
2009
through
2019.
What
I
found
was
that
inflation
rose
just
over
0.15%
per
month.
