-
Two
asset
managers,
VanEck
and
21Shares,
filed
to
launch
solana
ETFs
this
week. -
They
appear
to
be
dead-on-arrival
under
Joe
Biden,
but
a
key
deadline
in
the
approval
process
would
be
next
year,
when
Donald
Trump,
if
he
retakes
the
presidency,
would
be
in
office. -
Given
Trump’s
recent
embrace
of
crypto,
that
increases
the
odds
solana
ETFs
will
get
approved.
Asset
manager
VanEck
wasted
no
time
expanding
its
crypto
exchange-traded
fund
journey,
this
week
becoming
the
first
firm
to
apply
to
create
one
tied
to
solana
(SOL).
Another
firm,
21Shares,
put
in
a
request
a
day
later.
Given
how
long
the
approval
process
will
take,
their
decisions
look
like
a
wager
that
newly
crypto-friendly
Donald
Trump
will
win
the
U.S.
presidency
in
November
and
take
office
in
January.
Although
only
bitcoin
ETFs
have
been
approved
so
far
in
the
U.S.
and
funds
–
from
VanEck
and
others
–
that
seek
to
hold
Ethereum’s
ether
(ETH)
aren’t
even
fully
approved
yet,
solana
is
a
natural
next
step
given
it’s
one
of
the
largest
cryptocurrencies.
But
it
hasn’t
cleared
a
prerequisite
for
the
Biden
administration’s
Securities
and
Exchange
Commission:
a
well-established
regulated
derivatives
market.
Both
bitcoin
and
ether
have
had
that
in
the
form
of
CME
Group’s
cryptocurrency
futures
contracts.
Now
that
Trump
has
warmed
to
digital
assets
and
he’s
even
accepting
crypto
donations
for
his
campaign,
that
and
any
other
potential
objections
may
be
moot.
“I
think
VanEck’s
filing
is
a
sort
of
call
option
on
the
November
election,”
James
Seyffart,
ETF
analyst
at
Bloomberg
Intelligence,
said
during
an
interview
conducted
before
21Shares
became
the
second
solana
applicant.
“Under
the
current
SEC
administration
–
based
on
years
of
prior
approval
and
denial
orders
for
crypto
ETFs
–
a
solana
ETF
should
be
denied
because
there
is
no
federally
regulated
futures
market.
But
a
new
admin
in
the
White
House
and
a
new
SEC
admin
that’s
more
amenable
to
crypto
policies
could
change
that
calculus.”
An
ether
ETF
is
awaiting
final
SEC
approval,
which
could
happen
any
day
now,
according
to
reports.
But
New
York-based
asset
manager
VanEck
made
its
next
move.
Timing
plays
a
central
role.
VanEck
submitted
an
S-1
filing
for
a
potential
SOL
ETF
on
Thursday.
That
is
needed
when
an
entity
is
looking
to
offer
a
new
security
on
the
market.
But
the
filing
is
meaningless
if
a
second
one,
a
19b-4
form,
isn’t
submitted.
While
a
decision
on
an
S-1
filing
isn’t
subject
to
a
certain
timeline,
the
SEC
is
forced
to
respond
to
a
19b-4
within
240
days.
If
VanEck
were
to
file
a
19b-4
for
its
solana
ETF
today,
that
deadline
would
be
Feb.
25,
2025,
a
month
into
a
potential
Trump
administration.
Current
bets
on
Polymarket
suggest
that
former
Trump
has
a
67%
chance
of
winning
the
presidential
election
in
November
against
current
President
Joe
Biden.
The
SEC
under
Biden
has
visibly
been
hard
to
convince
to
approve
any
crypto-related
products;
those
that
have
been
have
taken
years.
But
a
Trump
administration
would
almost
certainly
replace
current
SEC
Chair
Gary
Gensler
and
shake
up
its
priorities.
“Given
that
CME-traded
solana
futures
don’t
currently
exist,
it
seems
the
only
viable
path
for
spot
solana
ETF
approval
would
be
the
implementation
of
a
legitimate
crypto
regulatory
framework
that
clearly
defines
which
crypto
assets
are
securities
versus
commodities
–
or
for
the
SEC
to
agree
with
solana
being
designated
as
a
non-security
commodity,”
said
Nate
Geraci,
president
of
the
ETF
Store,
an
investment
advisory
firm.
“In
either
case,
the
agency
would
also
need
comfortability
around
surveillance
sharing
agreements
with
currently
unregulated
spot
crypto
exchanges.
All
of
that
appears
highly
unlikely
to
happen
under
the
current
administration,
which
makes
the
VanEck
and
21Shares
filings
likely
bets
on
a
more
crypto-friendly
government,”
he
said.
VanEck
declined
to
comment
on
whether
its
filing
for
a
SOL
ETF
was
a
bet
on
Trump
or
not.
