Prediction Market Kalshi to Take Bets on Crypto (Settled in Dollars)

Kalshi,
the
lone
regulated
prediction
market
platform
in
the
U.S.,
is
moving
to
grab
a
piece
of
the
crypto
action
as
digital
currencies
bounce
back
from
a
two-year
slump.

Starting
Monday,
the
New
York-based
company
will
let
clients
bet
on
five
different
cryptocurrency
price
outcomes,
a
company
spokesperson
told
CoinDesk.
Examples
include
when
bitcoin

(BTC)
will

reach
$100,000
and
the
highest
price
Ethereum’s
ether

(ETH)
will

reach
in
2024.
Additional
markets
are
set
to
launch
on
Tuesday.

To
be
clear:
While
these
bets
are

about
crypto,
they
will
be
placed

in
U.S.
dollars,
like
all
other
markets
on
Kalshi.
Traders
on
the
platform
have
bet
on
questions
such
as

how
many
rate
cuts
the
Federal
Reserve
will
make
this
year,

how
many
inches
of
snow
will
fall
in
New
York
in
March,
and

who
would
win
the
Oscar
for
best
screenplay.

Kalshi’s
move
into
crypto
comes
at
the
apparent
dawn
of
a
bull
market
for
digital
assets,
as
the
launch
of
bitcoin
exchange-traded
funds
and
other
factors
have
sent
prices
soaring.
The

CoinDesk
20
Index
of
major
digital
assets
is
up
nearly
50%
this
year.

The
move
also
coincides
with
renewed
investor
interest
in
prediction
markets,
which
for
decades
were
relegated
to
a
niche
activity
and
academic
hobbyhorse.
In
December,
Bitwise
Investments
researchers


forecasted
that
“[m]ore
than
$100
million
will
be
staked
in
prediction
markets
as
they
emerge
as
a
new
‘killer
app’
for
crypto”
in
2024.
Former
U.S.
President
Donald
Trump
has
regularly
been


posting
screenshots
of
his
favorable
odds
for
retaking
the
White
House
on
Polymarket,
a
crypto-based
prediction
market.

Read
more:



What
Prediction
Markets
Are
Forecasting
for
Crypto
in
2024

Advocates
say
prediction
markets
have
a
loftier
purpose
than
gambling:
By
requiring
participants
to
put
their
money
where
their
mouths
are,
the
argument
goes,
they
reveal

what
people
truly
believe,
offering
a
corrective
to

fallible
polls
and
pusillanimous
pundits.

Typically,
prediction
markets
are
framed
as
yes-or-no
questions
about
verifiable
outcomes
within
a
set
time
period.
For
example,
on
Kalshi’s
“US
bans
TikTok
this
year?”
market,
“yes”
shares
were
trading
Sunday
at
25
cents,
signaling
the
market
saw
a
25%
chance
of
a
ban
before
Dec.
31,
and
“no”
shares
were
changing
hands
at
78
cents.
Each
share
pays
out
$1
if
the
prediction
turns
out
to
be
correct,
and
bupkis
if
it’s
wrong.

By
letting
clients
bet
on
crypto,
Kalshi
is
following
in
the
footsteps
of
a
rival
prediction
market
site,
Polymarket,
which
as
of
Sunday
listed
nearly

40
markets
on
crypto-related
outcomes.

Polymarket
is
barred
from
doing
business
in
the
U.S.
under
a
settlement
with
the
Commodity
Futures
Trading
Commission.
That
leaves
an
opening
for
Kalshi,
which
is
licensed
by
the
CFTC,
to
pick
up
business
from
U.S.
traders
who
want
to
speculate
on
crypto
price
movements
(or
hedge
positions)
without
buying
or
selling
crypto.

Read
more:



Prediction
Markets
Can
Hedge
Crypto
Startups’
Regulatory
Risk,
Paradigm
Says

The
agency’s
imprimatur
is
a
double-edged
sword.
Kalshi
is

fighting
the
CFTC
in
court
for
the
right
to
list
markets
asking
which
party
will
control
each
house
of
the
U.S.
Congress.

PredictIt,
a
popular
site
for
(dollar-denominated)
election
betting,
operates
in
the
U.S.
under
a
no-action
letter,
or
special
exemption,
from
the
CFTC
that
restricts
the
platform’s
growth
and
activities.
It,
too,
sued
the
CFTC
after
the
regulator
ordered
it
to

shut
down.

Last
week
CFTC
chairman
Rostin
Benham
said
that
his
agency
would
propose
a
rule
in
the
coming
months

to
establish
new
regulations
for
prediction
markets.