Looking
back
over
my
past
predictions
about
the
future,
it’s
clear
that
my
columns
have
represented
a
lot
of
wishful
thinking.
Like
Oscar
Wilde,
who
once
said
he
could
resist
anything
except
temptation,
I
can
predict
anything,
as
long
as
it’s
not
about
the
future.
Although
I’ve
often
been
wrong
about
what
will
happen
in
any
given
year,
I
do
think
some
of
my
major
forecasts
have
turned
out
to
be
directionally
correct.
Nor
am
I
content
to
be
a
sideline
observer.
I’m
building
a
blockchain
business
and
technology
with
the
express
purpose
of
influencing
that
future
path.
This
post
is
part
of
CoinDesk’s
“Crypto
2024”
predictions
package.
Paul
Brody
is
EY’s
global
blockchain
leader
and
a
CoinDesk
columnist.
The
future
I’m
working
to
build
is
one
built
on
the
public
Ethereum
ecosystem
with
robust,
regulatory-compliant
business
transactions,
and
meaningful
privacy
protections.
In
this
open,
censorship
and
monopoly-resistant
model,
we
can
build
a
kind
of
universal
business
infrastructure
that
makes
snapping
together
business
interactions
a
simple,
scalable,
and
reliable
experience.
In
this
vision
of
the
future,
financial
services
are
easy
to
integrate
and
serve
their
intended
purpose:
to
funnel
capital
to
useful
projects
from
start-ups
to
green
energy
projects.
The
path
here
has
been
much
slower
than
I
would
like,
but
the
progress
is
real.
In
the
10
years
I’ve
been
in
this
sector,
eight
of
them
at
EY
in
this
role,
we’ve
seen
enterprises
embrace
tokenization,
Ethereum
has
become
the
global
standard,
and
the
fashion
for
permissioned
chains,
though
not
dead,
is
slowly
fading
out.
Enterprises
have
also
embraced
fiat
currencies
alongside
crypto,
and
the
ecosystem
has
largely
conquered
the
scalability
challenges
though
L2s.
We
are
also
remarkably
far
along
the
path
to
solving
privacy
challenges
with
zero
knowledge
tools
and
applications
as
well.
As
always,
much
of
that
progress
came
about
during
the
dark
times
of
our
crypto
winters.
We’re
not
out
of
the
winter
yet,
but
I
am
hopeful
that
we
are
not
far
away.
Indeed,
I
see
the
gradual
implementation
of
the
Markets
in
Crypto
Assets
(MiCA),
which
happens
in
Europe
from
June
2024,
as
an
important
milestone
on
the
path
back
towards
our
next
blockchain
summer.
I
have
three
hopes
about
the
coming
summer,
which
I’ll
go
ahead
and
call
“predictions.”
Sustainable
summer
The
first
is
that
this
summer
proves
much
more
sustainable.
While
macroeconomic
changes
have
certainly
impacted
prior
blockchain
summers,
I
believe
that
other
problems
have
had
a
much
bigger
impact
including
ecosystems
like
Ethereum
hitting
up
against
their
capacity
limits
and
generating
high
fees,
waves
of
fraud,
and
the
limits
of
institutional
capital
pools.
This
time
could
be
different.
L2s
have
given
Ethereum
vast
capacity,
regulators
around
the
world
are
unlocking
institutional
capital
flows
such
as
pension
funds
while
simultaneously
giving
investors
greater
protections
from
rug-pulls
and
frauds.
These
measures
are
still
immature
and
there
are
no
financial
ecosystems
without
fraud
and
risk,
but
in
the
next
summer
Ethereum
and
crypto
will
look
and
feel
much
closer
to
the
rest
of
the
financial
ecosystem.
Convergence
of
stablecoins
and
CBDCs
My
second
prediction
is
that
we
will
start
to
see
the
world’s
central
banks
start
to
converge
upon
both
regulated
stablecoins
and
Central
Bank
Digital
Currencies
(CBDCs)
as
the
preferred
approach
to
implementing
CBDCs.
This
won’t
be
a
result
of
regulators
suddenly
embracing
decentralization
and
individual
control.
It
will
just
be
a
practical
choice.
Nearly
all
CBDC
plans
today
are
connected
to
tokenized,
but
centralized
systems
̅̅almost
none
of
which
plan
for
real
programmability.
As
a
result,
central
banks
are
finding
that
while
CBDC
prototypes
and
pilots
do
work,
technically,
their
“value-add”
over
existing
Real
Time
Gross
Settlement
systems
is
quite
limited.
None
of
the
ways
to
“fix”
these
shortcomings
look
very
appealing.
For
central
banks
to
build
fully
programmable
and
open
systems
on
a
par
with
Ethereum,
seems
like
a
monumental
technical
challenge
and
deploying
a
single
national
coin
onto
a
public
network
invites
potential
hacking
risks.
Read
more:
Paul
Brody
–
Under
the
Hood,
2023
Was
a
Highly
Constructive
Year
for
Crypto
There
will
be
some
cases
where
public
sector
managed
CBDCs
will
go
ahead
and
have
compelling
value
propositions.
I
believe
these
will
be
most
gripping
in
countries
that
have
not
yet
implemented
national
real-time
payments
(there
aren’t
many)
or
those
where
governments
want
to
see
more
intense
(and
low
cost)
competition
in
the
consumer
payments
space.
The
global
consumer
payments
market
is
highly
consolidated
and,
in
many
countries
like
the
U.S.
and
Canada,
payment
fees
look
remarkably
high
compared
to
low-cost
leaders
such
as
Australia.
Despite
these
challenges
and
the
lack
of
a
clear
value
proposition,
many
central
banks
seem
determined
to
deploy
both
retail
and
wholesale
CBDCs.
I
confess
I
don’t
understand
what
is
driving
this
push,
but
am
coming
to
suspect
that
the
push
towards
CBDCs
has
more
to
do
with
gaining
additional
power
and
control
over
the
financial
system,
than
as
something
that
really
solves
a
major
problem.
Even
with
a
CBDC,
I
believe
regulated
stablecoins
are
coming
as
well.
CBDCs
won’t
“quench”
the
demand
for
blockchain-based
programmable
money
that
can
be
used
in
DeFi
services
or
for
digital
asset
purchases.
Industrial
applications
progress
Lastly,
I
hope
to
see
industrial
applications
keep
going
with
their
progress.
This
is
the
slowest,
most
unglamorous
progress
you
can
get,
but
it’s
happening.
Corporations
are
easily
scared
off
by
scandals
like
some
of
the
crypto
exchanges
of
late,
but
my
hope
is
that
as
memories
fade
and
solutions
improve,
we
will
see
a
steady
re-acceleration
of
adoption.
I
cannot
promise
you
summer
is
coming
in
2024,
but
spring
is
definitely
in
the
air.
