Harris Leads Trump on Polymarket as DNC Begins, but They Got Tied Earlier Amid Volatility

This
week
in
prediction
markets:

This
past
weekend
was
an
active
one
for
Polymarket
traders
betting
on
the
2024
U.S.
presidential
election.

They
pushed
down
shares
representing
Kamala
Harris’
chances
of
winning
the
election
by
nearly
8
percentage
points,
leading
to
a
brief
tie
between
herself
and
Donald
Trump,
before
she
regained
a
4-point
lead
(as
of
Monday
morning
U.S.
time).

One
theory
on
Trump’s
buoyancy
despite
polls
shifting
toward
Harris
is
some
traders
are
sticking
with
outdated
assumptions
from
when
President
Joe
Biden
was
still
the
expected
Democratic
nominee
instead
of
Harris.

On
a
recent
episode
of
the

political
betting
podcast
Star
Spangled
Gamblers,
one
of
the
guests,
a
political
gambler
known
as

Gaeten
Dugas,
argued
that
the
market
wasn’t
correctly
pricing
in
Trump’s
chances
after
Biden
quit
and
needed
to
adjust.

“A
Trump
win
was
pretty
well
priced
in
with
Biden
being
the
candidate,”
he
said.
“Once
I
had
convinced
myself
it
was
going
to
be
[candidate]
Kamala,
then
I
thought
that
I
was
basically
buying
the
no’s
at
the
highest
price
that
they
would
be
for
Trump.”

It’s
important
to
note
that
Polymarket,
which
officially
bans
U.S.
residents
from
using
the
platform,
began
the
election
with
a
significant
premium
for
Trump,
and
it’s
tempting
to
dismiss
its
accuracy
because
of
the
embargo
on
Americans
–
the
actual
voters
–
as
market
participants.

Another
prediction
market,
PredictIt,
which
has
U.S.
regulators’

blessing
to
operate,
currently
gives
Harris
a
more
significant
edge
against
Trump.

And,
to
be
sure,
prediction
markets
aren’t
perfect.
PredictIt
gave
Hillary
Clinton
an

82%
chance
of
beating
Trump
(she
didn’t)
in
2016
–

in
line
with
New
York
Times
models
–
and
priced
in
only
a

16%
chance
that
Brexit
would
happen
(it
did)
as
polls
closed
in
the
U.K.

For
now,
Harris
seems
to
have
the
lead
in
the
race.

RealClearPolling
gives
her
a
1.4-percentage-point
lead
over
Trump,
while

Nate
Silver’s
Silver
Bulletin
model
gives
Harris
a
2.5-percentage-point
advantage.
Whether
that
means
PredictIt
or
Polymarket
are
more
fairly
priced
is
an
open
question.

With
the
Democratic
National
Convention
taking
place
this
week
in
Chicago
–
the
event
where
Harris
will
officially
become
the
party’s
candidate
–
this
could
be
a
busy
week
for
punters
on
prediction
markets.

And
with
leverage
also
coming
soon
to
these
markets,
even
more
volatility
may
loom.

Robert
F.
Kennedy
Jr.’s
presidential
campaign
has
struggled
to
regain
its
momentum
after
getting
close
to
12%
in
the
polls
in
February,

with
numbers
now
languishing
around
8%
to
9%.

Prediction
market
bettors
are
more
sour
on
RFK
Jr.
than
pollsters:

one
Polymarket
contract
that
asks
bettors
to
predict
his
share
of
the
popular
vote
is
giving
a
50%
chance
that
he
takes
less
than
1%
of
the
overall
vote,
and
only
a
7%
chance
that
he’ll
be
able
to
match
what
the
polls
currently
give
him.

Bettors
on
Polymarket
are
writing
the
prospect
off
almost
entirely,
giving
it
a
10%
chance
of
happening
before
the
end
of
the
year.

The
question
of
whether
bitcoin
is
banned
in
China
is
a
complicated
one,
and
there’s
no
absolute
answer.

As
CoinDesk
reported
earlier
this
year,
while
China
has
imposed
significant
restrictions
on
crypto
activities,
a
court
in
Fujian
province
and
a
Chinese
law
firm
have
noted
that
certain
actions,
like
holding
and
peer-to-peer
trading,
are
not
explicitly
banned,
highlighting
legal
gray
areas
that
allow
for
continued
crypto
use.

Until
there
are
significant
monetary
policy
changes
in
China,
crypto
can’t
have
a
foothold.