-
The
spot
ETF
catalyst
for
bitcoin
has
faded,
putting
added
import
on
macro
factors -
Inflation
data
coming
Tuesday
and
Wednesday
is
likely
to
set
at
least
the
short-term
tone
for
the
market.
Bitcoin
(BTC)
has
managed
a
modest
rally
over
the
past
72
hours
after
an
ugly
close
to
last
week,
but
three
major
economic
reports
later
this
week
are
among
the
factors
that
will
likely
set
off
more
volatility.
At
press
time,
the
world’s
largest
crypto
was
trading
at
$62,700,
up
2%
over
the
past
24
hours,
according
to
CoinDesk
data,
and
ahead
4%
from
Friday’s
low.
The
broader
CoinDesk
20
Index
was
higher
by
1.25%
over
the
past
24
hours.
With
spot
bitcoin
ETF
buying
slowing
to
a
near
halt
and
even
going
net
negative
on
some
days,
macro
catalysts
have
taken
on
greater
importance
of
late.
That
was
evident
Friday
morning
U.S.
hours
when
an
unexpected
rise
in
consumer
inflation
expectations
combined
with
hawkish
remarks
from
Dallas
Fed
President
Lori
Logan
to
send
bitcoin
tumbling
$3,000
in
minutes
from
the
$63,300
level.
Inflation
data
on
the
docket
The
next
negative
or
positive
catalysts
are
likely
to
come
from
U.S.
inflation
reports,
namely
the
Producer
Price
Index
(PPI)
set
for
release
on
Tuesday
at
8:30
a.m.
ET
and
the
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
24
hours
later.
Of
the
two,
the
CPI
report
is
of
more
import
and
economists
are
forecasting
that
gauge
to
have
risen
0.4%
in
April,
in
line
with
the
March
advance.
The
annual
pace
of
headline
CPI
is
seen
slowing
to
3.4%
from
3.5%
in
March.
The
so-called
core
CPI
–
which
strips
out
food
and
energy
costs
–
is
expected
to
rise
0.3%
in
April
versus
0.4%
in
March,
with
the
annual
pace
falling
to
3.6%
from
3.8%.
It’s
stubbornly
high
inflation
which
has
thrown
a
wrench
into
market
expectations
for
a
series
of
Federal
Reserve
rate
cuts
in
2024.
To
date,
there
have
been
exactly
zero
rate
cuts
and
markets
are
now
pricing
in
an
11%
chance
the
Fed
sits
on
its
hands
for
the
remainder
of
the
year,
according
to
CME
FedWatch.
Another
fast
inflation
report
might
not
just
have
traders
abandoning
hope
of
any
easier
monetary
policy
in
2024,
but
could
have
them
begin
to
price
in
odds
of
the
Fed’s
next
move
being
an
increase
in
benchmark
rates.
Other
data
and
Powell
speaks
Wednesday
will
also
bring
the
U.S.
government’s
retail
sales
report
for
April,
which
shouldn’t
be
overlooked
as
an
important
data
point.
Alongside
high
inflation,
the
U.S.
economy
has
shown
little
sign
that
it’s
in
need
of
lower
rates.
Though
there’s
been
a
modest
slowdown
of
late,
employment
gains
continue
to
impress
each
month
and
the
retail
sales
numbers
show
healthy
consumer
spending.
Economist
forecasts
are
for
retail
sales
to
have
grown
0.4%
in
April
versus
0.7%
in
March.
Ex-auto
and
gas,
retail
sales
in
April
are
seen
rising
just
0.1%
versus
1.0%
in
March.
Investors
will
also
get
to
hear
from
Fed
Chair
Jerome
Powell,
who
at
10
a.m.
ET
on
Tuesday
is
scheduled
to
take
part
in
a
moderated
discussion
with
Dutch
central
bank
Governor
Klaas
Knot
at
the
annual
general
meeting
of
the
Foreign
Bankers’
Association
in
Amsterdam.
Powell
earlier
in
May
brushed
off
ideas
that
the
U.S.
economy
risked
falling
into
“stagflation”
–
a
term
made
famous
during
the
1970s
that
signifies
slow
or
negative
economic
growth
combined
with
speedy
inflation.
“I
see
no
‘stag’
nor
‘flation,”
said
Powell
at
a
press
conference
on
May
1.
Market
participants
may
want
to
tune
in
on
Tuesday
to
see
if
recent
data
is
changing
his
mind.
