Bitcoin Set to Have Its Fourth Strongest Month Since October 2021

Bitcoin
is
currently
up
over
36%
for
November,
which
has
only
been
beaten
by
three
other
months
since
October
2021.

Nov
29,
2024,
11:34 a.m.

Nov.
30,
is
the
last
trading
day
of
the
month,
so
all
eyes
will
be
on
bitcoin’s
(BTC)
monthly
candle.
Bitcoin
is
less
than
4%
away
from
the
psychological
wall
of
$100,000.
While
the

$9
billion
worth
of
options
expiry
for
bitcoin
has
just
expired,
which
has
sent
the
token
slightly
higher
on
the
day
to
over
$96,000.

CoinGlass
data
shows
that
November
has
been
one
of
the
strongest
months
for
bitcoin
for
several
years,
currently
up
over
36%,
which
would
be
the
fourth
best
performing
month
since
October
2021.

November’s
rise
has
only
been
beaten
thrice
February
2024
(44%),
January
2023
(40%)
and
October
2021
(40%).
November’s
impressive
performance
is
largely
due
to
the
fact
that
Donald
Trump
won
the
U.S.
presidential
election
earlier
this
month.

Yet,
bitcoin
still
has
two
more
days
until
the
official
monthly
close
so
there
is
still
time
to
beat
these
milestones.

On
a
quarterly
timeframe,
bitcoin
is
currently
up
51%
on
the
quarter
with
December
still
to
come,
on
average
the
month
of
December
returns
around
5%.
Q4
2024
has
been
the
strongest
quarter
since
Q1
which
returned
69%.

It
seems
a
matter
of
when
not
if,
bitcoin
breaks
past
$100,000
while
it
is
on
track
towards
an
all-time
high
monthly
close.

Analyst
Caleb
Franzen
believes
there
is
more
juice
left
to
squeeze
in
this
current
bitcoin
bull
market.

“BTCUSD
monthly
chart
with
the
RSI
indicator:
Bitcoin
bull
markets
often
peak
with
the
monthly
RSI
trading
above
90,
versus
the
current
level
of
75.
Historically,
we’ve
seen
each
bull
market
peak
with
a
lower
RSI,
illustrated
by
the
descending
trend
line,
Franzen
says.
The
implication
is
that
momentum
is
not
yet
“overheated”
and
that
more
upside
can
be
squeezed
out
of
this
uptrend
in
the
months/quarters
ahead”.

Similar
market
structure
to
Q4
2020

Bitcoin
is
in
a
similar
market
structure
to
Q4
2020,
both
periods
saw
strong
green
months
in
October
and
November,
with
a
correction
during
the

2020
Thanksgiving
period.
In
the
back
end
of
2020,
this
was
when
bitcoin
conclusively
left
behind
the
psychological
barrier
of
$10,000
and
went
to
$60,000
by
April
2021.

Glassnode
data
shows
that
when
bitcoin
is
above
the
short-term
holder’s
realized
price
(STHRP)
it
tends
to
mean
bitcoin
is
in
a
bull
market.
In
Q4
2020,
bitcoin
used
the
STHRP
consistently
as
a
support
level,
as
the
price
continued
higher.

An
expectation
could
be
that
bitcoin
continues
higher
and
using
the
STHRP
as
a
support
level
mimicking
Q4
2020.
STHP
reflects
the
average
on-chain
acquisition
price
for
coins
held
outside
exchange
reserves,
which
were
moved
within
the
last
155
days.
These
reflect
the
most
probable
coins
to
be
spent
on
any
given
day.

There
is
also
a
growing
divergence
between
the
realized
price
(which
reflects
the
average
on-chain
acquisition
price
for
the
entire
coin
supply)
and
the
long-term
holder
realized
price
(LTHRP)
which
reflects
the
average
on-chain
acquisition
price
for
coins
held
outside
exchange
reserves,
which
have
not
moved
within
the
last
155-days.
These
reflect
the
least
probable
coins
to
be
spent
on
any
given
day.

A
growing
divergence
tells
us
that
new
participants
are
entering
the
market
while
long-term
holders
are
spending
or
realizing
profits.

One
very
small
data
point
indicates
that
bitcoin
could
even
hit
$100,000
on
Nov.
29.
Bitcoin
first
hit
$1,000
on
Nov.
27,
2013.
Four
years
and
one
day
later,
bitcoin
first
hit
$10,000.
Could
we
see
$100,000,
just
seven
years
and
one
day
later?