Bitcoin Could Hit as High as $124k Before Year-End, Says ARK Invest Analyst

“We
are
about
55%
to
65%
of
the
way”
to
the
end
of
the
bull
market,
ARK
Invest
Research
Associate
David
Puell
told
CoinDesk.

Nov
28,
2024,
7:23 p.m.

Bitcoin
(BTC)
has
slumped
back
to
$95,000
after
coming
within
a
few
hundred
dollars
of
passing
the
symbolic
$100,000
price
level.
But
the
largest
cryptocurrency
is
only
catching
its
breath
before
surging
to
newer
heights,
according
to
investment
management
firm
ARK
Invest.

“We’re
more
or
less
anticipating
$104,000
to
$124,000
price
targets
by
end
of
year,”
David
Puell,
one
of
the
firm’s
research
associates,
told
CoinDesk
in
an
interview.
“With
the
caveat
that
it’s
not
a
recommendation,
but
so
far,
price
action
has
kept
up
to
that
projection
quite
nicely.”

Puell’s
calculus
is
based
on
bitcoin’s
seasonality
—
a
term
referring
to
the
ways
the
asset
has
behaved
in
various
stages
of
previous
bull
markets
—
as
well
as
on-chain
metrics.
In
Puell’s
view,
cycles
are
very
much
still
at
play
until
any
strong
evidence
of
the
contrary,
meaning
that
he
eventually
expects
a
top
to
form
and
for
bitcoin
to
experience
another
serious
pullback
like
in
2022.

“I
would
classify
the
current
market
environment
as
a
sort
of
middle
of
the
bull,”
Puell
said.
“If
you’re
measuring
bottom
to
top,
I
would
say
we’re
at
about
55%
to
65%
of
the
way
there.”
That
currently
places
the
bitcoin
cycle
top
at
roughly
$126,000
to
$134,000
according
to
on-chain
metrics,
he
said,
though
these
price
targets
could
move
higher
“if
the
market
accelerates
to
the
upside.”

That
would
lend
to
the
theory
that
bitcoin
returns
are
diminishing
each
cycle
as
the
asset
matures
—
a
$134,000
top
would
mean
bitcoin
would
have
only
doubled
its
valuation
compared
to
its
2021
top
of
$69,000.
Back
then,
bitcoin
had
managed
to
triple
its
price
compared
to
the
2017
cycle.
Puell
said
ARK
Invest
was
ready
for
such
a
scenario
of
diminishing
returns,
but
that
data
was
inconclusive
so
far.

At
the
beginning
of
the
year,
ARK
Invest
CEO
Cathie
Wood

laid
out
a
bullish
target
of
$1
million
to
$1.5
million
per
bitcoin
by
2030,
with
a
base
target
of
$650,000.
Price
will
likely
be
buoyed
by
the
incoming
Trump
administration,
Puell
said,
depending
on
who
the
President-elect
picks
as
chairman
of
the
Securities
and
Exchange
Commission
(SEC),
and
how
accommodative
towards
risk-on
assets
the
Federal
Reserve’s
policy
turns
out
to
be.
Not
to
mention
the
prospect
of
a
strategic
bitcoin
reserve.

“Monetary
policy
and
the
SEC
stance
are
the
things
to
focus
on.
But
the
analogy
I
would
use
is
that
a
strategic
bitcoin
reserve
wouldn’t
be
just
like
the
cherry
on
top
—
it
would
be
like
a
whole
new
cake
on
top
of
a
cake,”
Puell
said.

But
that
doesn’t
mean
bitcoin
will
keep
soaring
forever.
Seasonality
and
cycles
mean
that
eventually,
the
top
cryptocurrency
could
suffer
another
bear
market,
and
eventually
plunge
70%
from
its
all-time
high,
Puell
said.
The
price
floor
will
depend,
then,
on
how
high
bitcoin
can
go
before
the
music
stops.

Read
more:

Bitcoin
to
Overcome
$100K
Despite
Pullback,
Has
Plenty
of
More
Room
Before
Topping:
CryptoQuant