Biden’s Odds on Polymarket Little Changed After ABC TV Interview

U.S.
President
Joe
Biden
may
have
seemed
more
coherent
on
Friday
night’s
televised
interview
compared
to
the
debate
a
week
ago,
but
his
odds
of
reelection
did
not
substantially
change,
according
to
traders
on
crypto-based
prediction
market
platform
Polymarket.

For
the
contract
asking

who
will
win
the
presidency
in
November,
“yes”
shares
for
Biden
were
trading
at
11
cents
shortly
after
the
ABC
News
interview
with
George
Stephanopoulos
aired,
a
penny
lower
than
right
before
the
broadcast.
Each
share
pays
out
$1
(in
USDC,
a
stablecoin,
or
cryptocurrency
that
trades
at
par
with
the
dollar)
if
the
prediction
comes
true,
and
zilch
if
it
does
not.
Therefore,
an
11-cent
price
means
the
market
believes
the
incumbent
has
an
11%
chance
of
winning.

A
month
ago,
the
shares
were
trading
at
36
cents.
They
tanked
after
Biden’s
disastrous
performance
in
the
debate
against
former
president
and
Republican
candidate
Donald
Trump.
Now,
Sen.
Mark
Warner
(D-Va.,)
is
rallying
fellow
Democrats
to
urge
the
president
to
drop
out
of
the
race,

the
Washington
Post
reported
Friday.

The
presidential
winner
contract
is
Polymarket’s
largest,
with
$229
million
of
bets
placed.

For
a
separate
contract
concerning

who
will
win
the
Democratic
nomination,
Biden’s
odds
climbed
just
one
percentage
point
after
the
broadcast
to
42%.
This
contract
has
$89
million
staked.

A
third
contract
asks

if
Biden
will
drop
out
of
the
race,
with
$12
million
riding
on
the
outcome.
Odds
there
inched
up
three
points,
to
65%.

Four-year-old
Polymarket’s
volume
has
surged
this
year
as
the
U.S.
election
in
November
fuels
enthusiasm
for
political
betting.
June
was
the
platform’s
first
month
with
more
than
$100
million
in
volume.
Polymarket
also
recently
won
accolades
for

signaling
early
on,
through
the
trading
levels
on
the
“Biden
drops
out?”
contract,
that
the
president’s
cognitive
health
was
a
concern
long
before
mainstream
media
outlets
discussed
the
matter
seriously.

“Prediction
markets
have
long
been
sought
as
a
prime
use
case
for
blockchains,”
wrote
Zack
Pokorny,
an
analyst
at
Galaxy
Digital,
in
a
research
note
Friday.

“Their
censor/tamper
resistant,
transparent,
and
global
nature
makes
them
well
suited
for
the
task,
as
they
allow
for
the
unfiltered
casting
of
opinion
on
any
topic
from
anyone,
anywhere.”

However,
on-chain
prediction
markets
have
limitations,
Pokorny
wrote.
“They
solely
reflect
the
opinions
of
individuals
who
are
active
on
blockchains,
which,
today,
is
a
small
sect
of
people
with

possibly
similar
beliefs.
With
crypto
becoming
an
increasingly
partisan
political
issue,
and
Polymarket
only
able
to
be
used
with
crypto,
it’s
possible
that
Polymarket’s
political
markets
may
be
skewed
by
the
pro-crypto
biases
of
its
participants.”

UPDATE
(July
6,
02:00
UTC):
Adds
detail
about
Sen.
Mark
Warner.