All Eyes on Bitcoin

The
current
cryptocurrency
market
is
distinct
from
previous
ones,
characterized
by
a
departure
from
quick
profits
and
the
constant
presence
of
risk
factors.
Despite
the
need
for
caution,
there
are
significant
opportunities
for
all
investors
due
to
the
industry’s
growth,
and
the
new
market
cycle
appears
to
be
just
beginning,
says
Semir
Gabeljic.

Nov
27,
2024,
4:42 p.m.

Bitcoin
saw
explosive
growth
immediately
after
the
recent
U.S.
presidential
elections,
rising
and
retaking
the
spotlight
from
former
highs
of
$73,000
in
March.
Now
the
question
is,
will
bitcoin
(BTC)
continue
its
uptrend,
and
at
what
point
can
a
sharp
reversal
happen?

If
we
take
a
look
at
former
BTC
market
cycles,
which
happen
every
four
years,
then
we
see
that
we
are
now
just
starting
to
go
into
new
bitcoin
price
discovery
areas,
and
BTC
could
top
out
at
new
all-time
highs,
which
is
practically
anything
greater
than
the
current
resistance
of
$92,000.
Bitcoin
could
even
potentially
see
highs
of
$140,000+
based
on
prior
supply
and
demand
— i.e.
halving
cycles.
On
the
contrary,
what
makes
this
market
cycle
a
bit
different
than
others
is
the
vanished
principle
of
BTC
being
an
inflation
hedge
or
digital
gold.
In
theory,
it
was
supposed
to
be
—
that
is,
at
least,
likely
what
Satoshi
intended
since
bitcoin
was
created
after
the
2008
financial
crisis.
From
what
we
saw
in
the
last
cryptocurrency
bear
market
cycle,
BTC
is
not
an
actual
inflation
hedge
and
performs
like
all
other
risk-on
assets,
so
sentiment
could
change
once
the
inauguration
happens
in
January.

As
we’ve
seen
before,
politics
could
potentially
just
be
politics
until
we
see
actual
regulatory
rollouts
and
a
more
favorable
U.S.
stance
on
paper
with
policies
and
laws
that
the
markets
fully
embrace.
Things
seem
to
be
going
in
the
right
direction
with
the
news
of
Gensler
resigning
come
January
20,
2025.
The
question
remains
on
who
will
be
his
replacement;
the
wrong
person
and
the
smallest
sentiment
change
in
the
wrong
direction
could
fully
accelerate
a
drawdown
in
BTC.
We’ve
previously
seen
what
every
Fed
meeting
minute
has
done
to
the
price
action
of
crypto
which
has,
up
until
recently,
always
been
negatively
perceived.
In
other
words,
we
are
not
fully
out
of
the
woods
just
yet,
especially
until
there
is
clarity
on
who
could
be
Gensler’s
replacement.

The
BTC
ETFs
played
a
vital
role
this
year
in
institutionalizing
the
cryptocurrency,
which
allowed
for
RIA
and
fiduciary
investment
in
bitcoin,
although
in
a
turnaround
market
the
same
volumes
that
helped
bitcoin
get
to
the
point
it
is
at
today
can
be
the
same
volumes
and
outflows
that
present
a
downfall.
This
can
lead
to
crippling
sentiment
as
we
all
know
the
crypto
bull
market
does
not
last
forever
and
drawdowns
of
70-80%
can
be
expected.

Looking
at
prior
BTC
bull
market
cycles,
BTC
has
seen
drawdowns
of
20-30%.
Can
the
same
be
expected
with
all
the
new
factors
under
the
current
and
new
market
structure?
Analysts
assume
less
drawdown
and
volatility
scenarios
due
to
the
BTC
ETF
options
offered
by
iShares
and
others,
although
on
the
contrary,
systematic
strategies
still
seem
to
be
sought
after
with
investors
taking
bets
on
market
volatility,
which
only
recently
(in
2022)
saw
an
equity
market-like
expansion
in
the
crypto
markets
where
enough
volume,
market
cap,
and
stability
existed
for
the
shorting
functionality
of
some
coins.

With
more
market
participants
and
more
avenues
of
shorting
functionality
across
all
crypto
assets,
including
BTC,
this
can
create
more
volatility
in
the
short-term.
Compared
to
the
last
market
cycle,
there
are
a
lot
more
traditional
finance
(TradFi)
players
trading
and
market
making
in
the
space
now,
which
in
a
way
is
offset
by
more
institutional
capital
locked
up
(mostly
in
ETFs
since
the
venture
space
in
crypto
dried
up
from
the
fast
money
of
the
last
bull
market).
Although
in
a
way,
no
matter
how
much
institutional
capital
enters
the
space,
the
market
cycle
of
BTC
will
follow
volatility—
it’s
just
in
its
decentralized
nature.

Regardless
of
whatever
outlook
one
has
on
the
price
of
BTC,
it’s
important
to
realize
that
this
is
a
different
market
than
before.
Gone
are
the
days
of
quick
“hot
money”
returns
with
the
inevitable
crypto
risk
factors
ever
present.
One
must
remain
cautious,
but
optimistic,
on
where
things
are
going,
if
not
bullish
on
the
market
cycle
and
structure
alone.
Regardless,
for
every
type
of
investor,
there
is
a
huge
opportunity
due
to
the
immense
growth
of
the
industry,
and
when
that
window
will
close
is
anyone’s
guess
—
the
only
thing
for
certain
is
that
the
new
market
cycle
is
just
getting
started.