The
Bitcoin
network
halving
is
fast
approaching,
likely
to
fall
in
seven
days
(April
19),
according
to
the
most
recent
estimates.
But
trying
to
pin
down
the
exact
minute
or
even
hour
for
this
pre-planned,
programmatic
update
is
surprisingly
unpredictable.
Just
take
a
look
at
any
of
the
Bitcoin
halving
countdowns
online:
they’re
all
out
of
sync!
This
is
an
excerpt
from
The
Node
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most
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news
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Watcher
Guru,
for
instance,
shows
the
halving
will
strike
in
seven
days,
seven
hours
and
20
minutes,
while
CoinMarketCap
says
it
will
happen
two
hours
later.
The
“Bitcoin
Block
Reward
Halving
Countdown”
says
it’ll
be
in
seven
days
and
15
hours.
While
these
estimations
are
all
generally
aligned,
for
someone
looking
to
trade
on
the
halving
may
be
a
bit
frustrated.
The
Bitcoin
halving
is
scheduled
to
occur
every
210,000
blocks,
or
roughly
every
four
years.
This
particular
event
will
be
executed
automatically
by
the
network
at
exactly
blockheight
840,000.
Based
on
the
way
Bitcoin’s
creator
Satoshi
Nakamoto
designed
the
system,
bitcoin
miners
“find”
the
next
block
to
hash
to
the
blockchain
every
10
minutes,
meaning
it
should
be
easy
to
figure
out
precisely
when
the
next
halving
should
happen
down
to
the
minute.
In
practice,
however,
things
are
a
bit
messier.
“Calculating
the
time
to
bitcoin
halving
has
three
important
elements:
The
current
block
height,
the
block
at
which
the
next
halving
occurs
and
the
average
block
time,”
according
to
Simon
Cousaert,
director
of
data
at
The
Block
Research
(which
currently
predicts
the
halving
will
fall
in
seven
days,
15
hours
and
40
minutes).
“Since
the
second
element,
the
target
block,
is
a
constant,
the
accuracy
of
the
countdown
depends
on
the
current
block
height
and
the
average
block
time,”
he
said.
Likewise
for
counting
the
current
block
height,
which
should
be
easy
data
to
fetch.
Where
the
discrepancy
likely
comes
in
is
how
different
halving
calculators
are
counting
the
time
between
blocks.
Again,
theoretically
the
time
to
mine
a
block
should
be
even
10
minutes,
by
design.
But
the
amount
of
miners
directing
computational
power
to
mine
and
secure
the
Bitcoin
blockchain
is
not
static,
meaning
that
that
figure
can
fluctuate.
See
also
The
Bitcoin
Halving
Really
Is
Different
This
Time
|
Opinion
“The
average
block
time
is
harder
to
estimate
accurately,”
Cousaert
said.
“One
can
take
a
simple
constant,
and
assume
that
every
block
takes
10
minutes
to
be
mined.”
But
what
halving
calculators
are
likely
doing
is
taking
“the
rolling
average
block
time”
over
some
time
scale,
whether
it’s
over
the
past
100,
90
or
30
days
(or
any
other
arbitrary
period
of
time).
“This
does
not
necessarily
lead
to
a
more
accurate
prediction,
because
the
average
of
the
last
days
does
not
necessarily
predict
the
average
for
the
next
few
days,”
Cousaert
added.
NiceHash
lead
mining
manager
Marko
Tarman
echoed
this
point
saying
that
everyone
in
the
world
has
the
same
access
to
some
“static”
data
regarding
Bitcoin:
the
halving
block
height.
However,
there
are
two
other
“dynamic
pieces
of
information,”
the
current
block
height
and
block
time.
“It’s
important
to
note
that
block
times
can
fluctuate
considerably,”
Taman
said.
“If
the
average
block
times
are
shorter
than
10
minutes,
the
predicted
halving
event
will
appear
to
be
sooner.
Conversely,
if
the
average
block
times
exceed
10
minutes,
the
halving
event
will
seem
to
be
delayed.”
In
other
words,
counting
down
to
the
halving
—
an
event
not
only
known
in
advance,
but
actively
anticipated
to
the
point
that
people
argue
over
whether
it
is
“priced
in”
—
is
more
of
an
art
than
a
science.
“While
this
detail
may
not
be
critical
when
observing
the
countdown
a
year
in
advance,
accuracy
becomes
increasingly
important
as
the
event
approaches,”
Tarman
said.
