On
April
19,
or
whenever
a
bitcoin
miner
mines
block
number
840,000,
the
amount
of
bitcoin
(BTC)
entering
into
circulation
will
halve
from
about
900
a
day
to
450.
This
event,
colloquially
known
as
the
halving
(sometimes
halvening),
looms
large
in
the
Bitcoin
mindshare,
one
of
those
things
that
makes
Bitcoin
Bitcoin.
Perhaps
because
it
only
comes
around
on
Leap
Years
(so
far),
bitcoiners
tend
to
look
forward
to
the
halving
more
than
most
crypto
holidays
like
Bitcoin
Pizza
Day
or
the
anniversary
of
Satoshi
Nakamoto
publishing
the
white
paper.
But
it
won’t
be
around
forever.
This
roundup
is
part
of
CoinDesk’s
“Future
of
Bitcoin”
package.
Once
all
21
million
bitcoins
are
mined,
the
halving
will
have
served
its
purpose
and
cease
(likely
in
2140).
Why
did
Nakamoto
make
it
this
way?
No
one
knows.
Just
like
there’s
no
real
insight
into
why
he
chose
a
21
million
cap
or
Jan.
9
as
launch
day.
There
are
many,
many
guesstimates
that
try
to
make
sense
of
these
seemingly
arbitrary
elements
of
Bitcoin’s
design.
Because
if
there’s
one
thing
certain
about
Bitcoin,
it’s
that
it
tends
to
split
opinions.
And
so,
with
an
event
as
anticipated
as
the
halving
there
are
certainly
things
to
argue
over.
Is
it
“priced
in”
(meaning
will
the
reduction
in
supply
of
bitcoins
entering
the
market
cause
a
rally)?
Will
the
reduced
revenues
drive
bitcoin
miners
bankrupt?
Will
this
time
be
any
different?
CoinDesk
turned
to
the
crypto
community
to
get
their
say:
Priced
in?
Haseeb
Qureshi,
managing
partner
at
Dragonfly
Capital:
I
am
a
longtime
halving
nihilist.
The
halving
is
*what
it
means*
for
bitcoin
to
be
deflationary.
It’s
been
priced
in
since
the
first
time
someone
bought
bitcoin
because
it
has
a
fixed
supply.
The
timing
of
the
halving
has
been
baked
in
since
Bitcoin
was
first
launched
six
years
ago.
People
drawing
charts
and
rainbows
and
all
this
nonsense
over
an
event
that
has
deterministically
happened
four
times
(on
an
asset
that
already
goes
up
almost
every
single
year)
is
pseudoscientific
nonsense.
But
whatever,
it’s
a
good
story.
Austin
Campbell,
assistant
professor
at
Columbia
Business
School:
As
bitcoin
gains
more
of
a
foothold
in
traditional
finance,
events
that
were
drivers
of
past
cycles
like
the
halving
will
cease
to
have
as
much
of
an
impact,
if
any.
Portfolio
allocators
think
in
multi-year
and
multi-decade
terms,
and
the
impact
of
events
like
the
halving
will
be
muted
as
this
market
segment
grows,
just
like
any
market
growing
from
new
to
mainstream
sees
volatility
due
to
small
idiosyncratic
events
decrease
as
liquidity
and
scale
increase.
Azeem
Khan,
co-founder
of
Morph:
My
personal
opinion
is
the
halving
is
likely
priced
in.
We’ve
seen
institutional
capital
inflows
for
months
now
since
the
bitcoin
spot
ETF
was
approved.
And
even
before
that
we
were
seeing
a
lot
of
liquidity
enter
the
market
without
seeing
traditional
signs
that
retail
was
buying
with
things
like
Coinbase
being
the
number
one
app
in
the
App
Store.
To
me,
that
indicated
it
was
already
institutional
money
coming
in.
They’re
not
dumb
and
have
likely
been
buying
ahead
of
this.
Larry
Fink
didn’t
get
to
where
he
is
by
accident.
My
personal
philosophy
in
this
space
has
tended
to
be
that
when
everyone
agrees
something
is
going
to
happen,
it
generally
doesn’t.
Similar
to
when
we
had
Elon
being
a
clown
on
SNL
pumping
$DOGE
in
2021
and
everyone
had
agreed
it
was
going
to
$1,
it
dumped.
The
investing
approach
I
abide
by
has
always
been
to
dollar
cost
average.
Pick
an
amount
you’re
willing
to
lose,
set
an
auto
buy
for
that
amount
of
whichever
assets
you’ve
done
your
research
on,
continue
to
buy
over
the
long
term
every
X
period,
and
never
look
at
the
price.
If
you’re
investing
with
a
long
term
approach
in
mind,
this
will
help
you
beat
out
99%
of
the
noise
you
see
from
gambling
addicts,
some
of
which
turned
out
to
be
the
lottery
winners
of
Crypto
Twitter
when
zooming
out
through
the
years.
Not
priced
in
Edan
Yago,
founder
of
Sovryn:
Definitely
not
priced
in.
Not
even
close.
This
is
the
most
important
halving
since
the
first.
This
halving
will
bring
new
assets
to
Bitcoin
in
the
form
of
Runes
and
the
coming
cycle
will
see
Bitcoin
Rollups
add
scalability
and
programmability
to
Bitcoin.
Bitcoin
block
space
will
go
from
cheap
to
the
scarcest
computing
resource
in
the
world.
Ogle,
founder
of
Glue:
I
think
this
halving
is
distinct
from
prior
ones
because
of
the
significant
increase
in
capital
coming
into
the
market
because
of
the
ETF
approvals.
So
you
have
a
reduction
of
supply
because
of
the
halving
itself,
combined
with
increased
demand
from
the
ETFs
—
basic
economic
principles
say
this
should
result
in
a
higher
price.
My
guess
is
the
halving
has
partially
been
priced
in,
but
I
don’t
think
people
quite
realize
the
magnitude
of
buy
pressure
that
is
coming
in
via
the
ETFs
—
and
that
buy
pressure
is
in
my
view
going
to
significantly
impact
the
price
of
BTC
upward.
Uncle
Rockstar
Developer,
core
contributor
to
BTCPay:
Given
the
historical
data
—
9,575%
increase
post-2012,
3,233%
post-2016,
and
667%
post-2020
—
it’s
not
a
question
of
if
the
BTC/USD
price
will
rise
after
this
halving,
but
rather
by
how
much.
Feel
free
to
quote
me
on
that.
This
time
it’s
different
(or
not)
Ed
Hindi,
chief
investment
officer
at
Tyr
Capital:
Bitcoin
remains
a
viable
doomsday
asset
in
2024,
as
its
correlation
to
gold
recently
increased,
and
investors
continue
to
diversify
away
from
traditional
financial
assets.
The
ETF
is
currently
spearheading
this
doomsday
rally
and
we
should
expect
$120,000
to
be
hit
in
the
coming
months
as
global
geopolitics
continues
to
deteriorate
and
the
middle
classes
continue
to
find
ways
to
protect
their
wealth.
We
believe
that
price
action
ahead
and
post-halving
is
going
to
be
different
from
past
events
as
there
are
new
variables
affecting
bitcoin.
The
combination
of
an
uncertain
geopolitical
situation,
choppy
U.S.
spot
ETF
flows,
record
leverage
and
recalibration
of
the
U.S.
Federal
Reserve
monetary
policy
is
going
to
create
an
explosive
combo
and
lead
to
extremely
volatile
market
conditions.
We
would
not
be
surprised
to
see
BTC
trade
as
low
as
$55,000
and
as
high
as
$75,000
in
the
coming
couple
of
weeks.
We
remain
very
bullish
into
year-end
though
and
consider
$120,000
to
be
a
realistic
target.
Roger
Ver,
creator
of
Bitcoin
Cash:
Nothing
special
happened
for
the
last
three
halvings.
I
don’t
expect
this
time
to
be
any
different.
Kadan
Stadelmann,
chief
technology
officer
of
Komodo
Platform:
The
biggest
difference
between
the
2020
halving
and
the
2024
halving
is
skyrocketing
institutional
demand.
Prior
to
the
previous
halving,
institutions
were
on
the
sidelines.
The
market
was
dominated
by
retail
investors.
Since
then,
the
market
dynamic
has
drastically
shifted.
As
one
example,
MicroStrategy
didn’t
make
its
first
BTC
purchase
until
August
2020.
As
of
April
2024,
the
company
reportedly
holds
214,
246
BTC
(roughly
$13.625
billion).
Of
the
21
million
bitcoins
that
will
ever
exist,
around
12.27%
currently
belong
to
publicly
traded
and
private
companies,
ETFs
and
countries.
Adam
Blumberg,
co-founder
of
Interaxis:
The
halving
will
have
likely
an
impact
on
the
price,
as
we
have
greater
demand
than
ever
from
ETF
investors,
bitcoin
hodlers
and
even
corporations,
and
we’re
coupling
that
with
decreasing
new
supply.
We’ll
also
see
impact
on
miners
who
have
tremendous
capital
and
electricity
outlays,
and
will
get
their
production
cut
in
half.
Impact
on
mining
Colin
Harper,
researcher
and
writer
for
Luxor
Technology’s
Hashrate
Index:
This
halving
could
be
unprecedented
with
regards
to
how
it
affects
Bitcoin’s
total
network
hashrate.
It’s
plausible
that
we
see
no
hashrate
come
offline
after
the
halving,
or
that
we
will
see
the
smallest
decrease
in
network
hashrate
after
any
other
halving
event
in
Bitcoin’s
history.
Mining
margins
won’t
be
as
good
after
the
halving
as
they
are
now,
obviously,
but
they
won’t
be
horrendous.
And
if
the
new
Runes
fungible
token
protocol
makes
a
significant
impact
on
transaction
fees,
then
margins
will
be
healthy
enough
to
keep
miners
with
higher
costs
online
for
longer
than
not.
For
comparison,
Bitcoin’s
hash
rate
declined
15%
after
the
2020
halving,
5%
after
2016’s
halving,
and
13%
after
2012.
Joe
Downie,
chief
marketing
officer
at
NiceHash:
This
halving
is
different,
we
will
likely
see
less
volatility
than
previous
ones,
for
a
few
reasons:
one
is
that
Bitcoin
mining
is
far
stronger
than
it
has
ever
been
before
in
terms
of
hashrate,
another
is
the
level
of
legitimacy
Bitcoin
has
gotten
recently
due
to
institutional
funds
and
ETFs,
plus
the
fact
that
a
lot
of
people
are
in
“wait
and
see”
mode.
This
makes
for
a
far
more
stable
basis
for
BTC
to
hold
its
current
value
and
gradually
increase
over
the
course
of
this
year.
There
may
be
some
short
term
volatility
during
the
following
week
or
two
after
the
halving,
but
I
expect
things
to
stabilize
quickly
after
that.
Troy
Cross,
professor
of
philosophy
at
Reed
College:
There
are
two
sides
of
the
halving
story:
price
impact
and
mining
impact.
On
the
price
side,
I
don’t
have
anything
to
say.
The
“supply
shock
*should*
be
priced
in,
but
every
time
I
have
thought
that
and
every
time
I’ve
been
wrong.
I
won’t
pretend
to
read
the
collective
psyche.
With
everyone
anticipating
that
everyone
else
is
irrational
and
*not*
pricing
it
in,
who
knows
what
will
happen?
I
tweeted
recently
about
the
U.S.
government’s
holdings
of
bitcoin,
over
200,000
bitcoins,
and
much
of
it
Silk
Road
seizure.
In
terms
of
the
impact
on
supply,
that’s
at
least
as
important
as
the
halving
event.
But
on
the
mining
side,
the
halving
does
get
me
excited.
The
halving
will
force
miners
to
seek
out
even
cheaper
power
than
they
already
have.
Some
miners
will
go
under,
selling
off
their
equipment
to
those
with
more
efficient
operations.
The
breakeven
point
for
profitably
running
an
ASIC
will
nearly
drop
in
half.
Miners
will
start
curtailing
more
often,
particularly
their
older
machines.
What
happens
next
depends
on
bitcoin’s
price
action,
but
if
prices
do
not
rise
dramatically,
we
will
see
a
dip
in
hashrate
while
ASICs
find
cheaper
homes,
and
then
mining
will
settle
into
its
“dung
beetle”
role,
consuming
only
wasted,
stranded
energy.
The
differences
between
a
cost-sensitive
consumer
of
energy
like
bitcoin
and
traditional
data
centers
or
AI
data
centers–or
really
any
other
electricity
consumer–are
already
clear,
but
after
the
halving,
bitcoin’s
flexibility
—
shutting
down
whenever
electricity
prices
rise
—
and
its
opportunism,
finding
pockets
of
currently-stranded
energy,
bottlenecked
by
transmission
constraints,
will
be
even
more
dramatic.
Maria
Bustillos,
founder
of
Flaming
Hydra,
a
part
of
the
Brick
House
co-op:
I
just
hope
this
finally,
FINALLY
gets
people
reckoning
the
gigantic
difference
in
environmental
costs
between
PoW
and
PoS
blockchains.
Effects
on
adoption
Peter
Todd,
founder
of
OpenTimestamps
and
Bitcoin
Core
developer:
The
halving
is
one
of
the
dumbest
parts
of
how
Bitcoin
was
designed.
If
you’re
going
to
reduce
subsidy
over
time,
the
right
way
to
do
it
is
gradually,
rather
than
shocking
the
system
every
four
years.
Fortunately
fees
are
getting
higher,
so
the
risk
of
havings
is
reducing.
Hopefully
this
one
goes
alright.
Fortunately
fees
are
getting
higher,
so
the
risk
of
havings
is
reducing.
Hopefully
this
one
goes
alright.
Zooko
Wilcox,
founder
of
Zcash:
I’m
interested
in
the
Bitcoin
halving
because
of
supply
effects.
I
have
come
to
frankly
detest
that
part
of
the
markets
which
is
independent
of
fundamentals.
You
know
what
I
mean:
hype,
narrative,
people
buying
when
they
see
something
go
up
and
selling
when
they
see
something
go
down.
The
Keynesian
Beauty
Contest,
the
Greater
Fool
Theory.
Memecoins.
Memestocks.
Pump
and
dumps.
Insider
trading.
Misinformation/disinformation/FUD.
I
was
always
naturally
against
such
stuff,
but
my
long
painful
experience
in
the
crypto
world
has
made
me
hate
it.
Bitcoin’s
and
Zcash’s
assured
supply
limits
is
the
very
opposite
of
that
—
the
thing
that
no
amount
of
hype
or
misinformation
or
mass
mania
can
touch.
And
it’s
interesting
to
think
about
the
difference
between
talking
about
the
supply
of
Bitcoin
and
Zcash
being
21
million,
versus
talking
about
it
being
the
ongoing
addition
to
the
supply
from
mining.
Alex
Thorn,
head
of
research
at
Galaxy
Digital:
The
Bitcoin
halving
is
the
programmatic
mechanism
that
creates
and
enforces
bitcoin’s
most
famous
quality:
its
scarcity.
While
this
fourth
halving
reduction
in
new
daily
issuance
from
~900
BTC
to
~450
BTC
is
small
in
absolute
terms
and
relative
to
BTC’s
daily
float
of
$10-$25
billion,
nonetheless
prices
are
set
on
the
margin.
But
beyond
any
supply
impact
–
which
I
believe
is
marginal
–
this
is
the
first
halving
in
which
major
U.S.
asset
managers
are
educating
on
Bitcoin,
and
there’s
no
better
Bitcoin
education
than
learning
about
the
halving.
It’s
a
narrative
event
first
–
a
quadrennial
market
moment
–
and
a
supply
event
second,
though
I
think
both
aspects
will
be
impactful.
Tatiana
Koffman,
general
partner
at
Moonwalker
Capital
and
author
of
the
Myth
of
Money
newsletter:
The
most
significant
impact
of
the
Bitcoin
halving
is
its
influence
on
the
energy
input
and
mining
difficulty
of
Bitcoin,
which
inherently
supports
a
higher
baseline
price
for
the
cryptocurrency.
This
phenomenon
can
be
closely
likened
to
gold
mining,
where
the
principle
of
scarcity
plays
a
crucial
role.
As
more
gold
is
extracted,
the
remaining
reserves
become
increasingly
scarce,
making
it
more
challenging
and
costly
to
find
and
extract
new
deposits.
This
requires
more
investment
in
exploration
and
advanced
machinery
for
mining
and
processing
the
gold.
Similarly,
Bitcoin’s
scarcity
is
engineered
through
a
difficulty
adjustment
algorithm
that
halves
the
mining
rewards
roughly
every
four
years.
This
not
only
reduces
the
rate
at
which
new
Bitcoins
are
introduced
but
also
adjusts
the
mining
difficulty
to
maintain
a
steady
rate
of
block
creation,
regardless
of
the
total
computational
power
on
the
network.
This
mechanism
ensures
that
as
Bitcoin
becomes
scarcer,
the
effort
and
cost
to
mine
it
increase,
supporting
its
price
over
time.
The
halving
mechanism
is
fundamental
to
preserving
Bitcoin’s
integrity
as
a
store
of
value.
It
underscores
the
cryptocurrency’s
deflationary
nature,
which
is
critical
for
its
long-term
valuation
and
the
security
of
its
network.
By
intentionally
reducing
the
influx
of
new
Bitcoins,
the
halving
events
reinforce
Bitcoin’s
status
as
a
digital
equivalent
of
gold,
making
it
a
potentially
attractive
option
for
future
generations
looking
for
reliable
value
preservation
in
the
face
of
inflationary
fiat
currencies.
Bradley
Rettler,
philosophy
professor
at
the
University
of
Wyoming:
The
bitcoin
halving
has
two
purposes.
The
first
is
to
attract
attention,
thereby
drawing
ever
more
people
into
the
network.
The
second
is
to
reassure
people
that
the
rules
are
still
in
charge.
Anil
Lulla,
co-founder
of
Delphi
Digital:
I
think
the
halving
is
always
just
a
great
marketing
event
built
into
Bitcoin
every
four
years.
It
obviously
has
an
impact
on
its
supply,
but
more
than
that
it
gets
everyone
to
pay
attention
to
the
asset
and
how
it
works.
I
think
this
halving
is
extra
special
because
of
two
things
(1)
The
ETF
and
(2)
the
Bitcoin
Renaissance
happening
right
now.
The
ETF
is
straightforward
and
widely
covered,
so
I’ll
focus
on
(2).
Ordinals,
Runes
and
BRC-20s.
I
don’t
think
the
Bitcoin
ecosystem
has
had
this
much
excitement
around
it
in
years.
It’s
driving
a
lot
of
attention,
experimentation
and
innovation
to
Bitcoin
at
a
time
when
it’s
much
needed.
Burak
Tamac,
adjunct
professor
at
Montclair
State
University:
The
Bitcoin
halving
reduces
barriers
to
adoption
in
three
key
ways:
1.
The
concept
is
not
only
easy
to
understand,
but
we
need
something
to
contrast
when
learning
new
concepts.
2.
Comparing
the
halving
to
fiat
money
supply
highlights
the
direct
contrast
between
the
two.
However,
these
two
factors
alone
won’t
drive
rapid
mass
adoption.
This
is
where
the
third
point
becomes
crucial:
3.
It
is
also
very
easy
to
explain.
New
bitcoiners
can
quickly
understand
and
convincingly
share
the
concept
with
others.
What
distinguishes
this
halving
is
that
not
only
bitcoiners
but
also
major
financial
institutions
have
been
educating
their
clients
about
its
importance.
Institutional
interest
David
Zane
Morris,
editor
of
the
Dark
Markets
newsletter:
I
expect
a
price
rise
after
the
halving,
largely
thanks
to
the
new
ETFs.
There
are
a
lot
of
new
investors
who
are
still
learning
the
nuances
of
Bitcoin,
and
there
is
now
a
very
easy
way
for
them
to
buy
into
sentiment
or
narratives.
That
lack
of
friction
is
the
truly
new
factor
here,
and
I
expect
it
to
matter.
James
Wester,
a
tech
analyst
at
Javelin
Strategy:
This
halving
is
definitely
coming
at
an
interesting
time
as
we
are
still
figuring
out
the
effects
of
the
bitcoin
ETFs
on
demand.
That
makes
it
harder
to
determine
how
much
of
the
halving
is
effectively
priced
in.
That
said,
all
of
the
issues
that
have
gotten
us
here
still
remain–the
ETFs,
institutional
interest–so
it
is
reasonable
to
believe
that
demand
will
continue
to
drive
the
price
up
in
the
longer
term.
Aubrey
Strobel,
advisor
to
Trust
Machines,
Lolli
and
Pubkey:
Consider
this
—
in
just
a
span
of
three
or
four
months,
we’ve
witnessed
the
launch
of
11
bitcoin
ETFs,
with
four
of
them
marking
the
most
successful
debuts
in
history.
The
combined
capital
in
these
ETFs
has
already
exceeded
50%
of
the
assets
under
management
(AUM)
in
gold,
a
milestone
achieved
in
a
fraction
of
the
time
it
took
for
gold
to
reach
its
current
status
over
20
years.
Now,
with
only
450
new
bitcoins
entering
the
market
daily,
coupled
with
significant
investments
from
major
asset
managers
like
Fidelity,
Blackrock
and
also
Michael
Saylor,
the
demand-supply
dynamics
are
evident.
It’s
simple
math
to
anticipate
the
trajectory
ahead.
What
critics
say
Molly
White,
author
the
Citation
Needed
newsletter:
Although
responsible
investment
advisers
will
often
warn
that
“past
performance
is
no
guarantee
of
future
results”,
that’s
largely
the
kind
of
thought
process
that
goes
into
predictions
for
the
halving.
“Number
went
up
last
time,
so
number
go
up
again”.
More
sophisticated
explainers
might
delve
into
supply
and
demand,
suggesting
that
the
gradual
closing
of
the
bitcoin
faucet
amid
roughly
steady
demand
is
what
drives
prices
higher.
Either
way,
some
people
are
piling
into
bitcoin
in
belief
of
guaranteed
double-your-money
returns,
if
not
better.
These
folks
might
do
well
to
be
a
bit
more
cautious.
Gwern,
polymath:
Bitcoin
has
been
boring
for
a
long
time.
I
can’t
think
of
a
single
thing
about
Bitcoin
in
the
past
four
years
I’d
actually
feel
excited
to
write
about.
even
stuff
like
Lightning
slowly
whimpering
out
should’ve
been
old
news
in
2020.
Bennett
Tomlin,
head
of
research
at
Protos:
The
Bitcoin
halving
serves
the
important
function
of
reducing
the
incentives
to
waste
energy
on
Bitcoin
and
ensuring
that
many
poorly
run
bitcoin
miners
will
once
again
be
forced
to
confront
the
challenging
economics
of
their
businesses.
Bitfinex’ed,
Tether
critic:
It’s
not
events
that
dictate
price
in
crypto,
prices
in
this
market
are
determined
by
the
heads
of
the
market,
notably
Tether
and
their
co-conspirators.
If
you
want
a
quote
from
an
influential
person,
Giancarlo
Devasini,
the
CFO
of
Tether.
“Illiquid
markets
such
as
bitcoin
are
easy
prey
for
manipulation”,
being
as
the
primary
trading
pair
is
Tether
and
not
the
U.S.
dollar,
the
prices
are
whatever
he
wants
them
to
be.
UPDATE
(APRIL
16,
2024):
Adds
quotes
from
Maria
Bustillos,
Aubrey
Strobel,
James
Wester,
David
Zane
Morris
and
Zooko
Wilcox.
