Trump’s Odds of Victory Hit All-Time High on Polymarket After Shooting

Former
U.S.
president
Donald
Trump’s
probability
of
retaking
the
White
House
jumped
to
an
all-time
high
Saturday
after
he
was
injured
from
a
shooting
at
a
rally
in
Pennsylvania,
according
to
traders
on
Polymarket.

A
Secret
Service
spokesman
said
the
Republican
presidential
candidate
was
“safe”
after
the
shooting,
according
to

The
New
York
Times.
A
suspected
gunman
was
killed,
and
a
spectator
died
as
well,
the
newspaper
said.

Photos
and
video
footage
of
a
defiant
Trump
with
blood
on
his
face
pumping
his
fist
in
the
air
circulated
on
social
media,
following
two
weeks
in
which
the
national
conversation
had
focused
on
the

frailty
and

gaffes
of
his
opponent,
incumbent
President
Joe
Biden.

“Yes”
shares
in

Polymarket’s
contract
on
whether
Trump
will
win
the
presidency
climbed
ten
cents
after
the
incident,
to
70
cents,
meaning
the
market
now
sees
a
70%
chance
he
will
prevail
in
November.
Each
share
pays
out
$1
if
the
prediction
comes
true,
and
zero
if
not.
Bets
are
programmed
into
a
smart
contract
on
the
Polygon
blockchain
and
settled
in
USDC,
a
stablecoin,
or
cryptocurrency
that
trades
1:1
for
dollars.

“PoliFi”
meme
tokens
named
after
Trump
also
surged
after
the
shooting.
MAGA,
for
example,
was
up
34%
on
a
24-hour
basis
to
$8.38,
according
to

CoinGecko
data,
and
the
satirical
TREMP
had
climbed
67%
to
$0.6471.

BODEN,
a
joke
asset
named
after
Biden,
slipped
about
15%
over
24
hours
to
$0.0333115.
These
meme
coins
have
become
a
sort
of
“de
facto
betting
market
on
the
election,”
as
one
proponent

described
them
this
year,
although
unlike
prediction
markets,
PoliFi
tokens
do
not
pay
anything
out
to
holders
if
the
associated
candidate
wins.

As

noted
by
the
writer
Noah
Kumin
in
the
Mars
Review
of
Books,
the
shooting
also
inspired
(if
that’s
the
right
word
for
it)
a
crop
of
new
meme
coins,
many
of
them
in
poor
taste,
on
the
Solana

token
creation
site

Pump.fun.
“Resurrection
of
Trump”
(ticker:
ROT)
and
“Hero
Trump”
(HERO)
were
two
relatively
innocuous
examples.

The
CoinDesk
20
index,
a
proxy
for
the
overall
cryptocurrency
market,
is
up
3.31%
on
a
24-hour
basis.
Bitcoin,
the
oldest
and
largest
cryptocurrency
by
market
cap,
is
up
3.26%
to
$59,735.17.

Trump
has
expressed
wholehearted
support
for
crypto
on
the
campaign
trail
–
he
is
set
to

speak
at
a
bitcoin
conference
in
Nashville
this
month
–
and
the
Republican
platform

vows
to
halt
the
Biden
administration’s
“crackdown”
on
the
industry.

Polymarket,
founded
four
years
ago
by
Shayne
Coplan,
has
seen
boffo
trading
volumes
in
2024
amid
enthusiasm
for
political
betting
ahead
of
the
U.S.
election.
The
U.S.
presidential
winner
contract
has
a
total
of
$252
million
in
bets
placed,
a
record
for
the
company

and
for
all
crypto-based
prediction
markets,
if
not
all
prediction
markets.

PredictIt,
a
more
traditional
betting
site
where
wagers
are
settled
in
fiat,
showed
a

similar
trend,
with
Trump
shares
climbing
from
59
cents
before
the
shooting
to
66
cents
before
leveling
off
at
65
cents.

Prediction
markets
are
often
called
a
more
reliable
gauge
of
sentiment
and
superior

method
of
forecasting
than
polls
or
pundits
because
the
people
making
predictions
are
putting
money
on
the
line,
and
are
therefore
incentivized
to
do
thorough
research
and
express
their

honest
opinions.

UPDATE
(July
14,
2024,
01:55
UTC):
Adds
BODEN
token
price,
links
and
background.

UPDATE
(July
14,
2024,
02:36
UTC):
Adds
detail
about
newly
minted
meme
coins.