Trump and Biden Likely Won’t Shake Hands at Debate, Prediction Market Says

This
week
in
prediction
markets:

The
handshake
has
long
been
a
key
component
of
U.S.
presidential
debates.
It’s
a
gesture
of
civility
and
mutual
respect,
despite
opposing
ideas,
and
has
been
the
“first
scene”
(and
last)
of
presidential
debates

for
the
last
four
decades
(though
it
was

absent
from
the
first
televised
one
in
1960).

But
Polymarket
bettors
doubt
there
will
be
one
during
the
first
2024
presidential
debate,
scheduled
for
June
27.

“This
market
will
resolve
to
‘Yes’
if
Donald
Trump
and
Joe
Biden
shake
hands
at
any
point
immediately
before,
during,
or
immediately
after
the
first
in-person
presidential
debate
in
the
2024
election
cycle,”
the
market
contract
reads,
with
“yes”
shares
currently
trading
at

32
cents.

For
the
uninitiated,
in
prediction
markets,
individuals
who
predict
the
correct
outcome
are
rewarded
with
$1
per
share,
whereas
those
who
guess
incorrectly
earn
nothing.
The
price
of
a
share
indicates
the
perceived
probability
of
an
event;
for
example,
a
share
priced
at
32
cents
implies
a
32%
likelihood
of
that
event
occurring.

The

break
in
handshakes
started
during
the
2016
election
cycle,
when
debates
began
to
get
particularly
acrimonious
compared
to
the
past.

Biden
and
Trump
didn’t
shake
hands
during
the
2020
debate
cycle,
not
because
of
hostility
and
acrimony
between
the
candidates
–
there
was
plenty
of
that
–

but
rather
Covid
protocols.

Former
President
Trump’s
claims
that
the
2020
election
was
stolen
will
likely
come
up
during
the
debate,
as
well
as
his
mounting
legal
troubles.
Trump
will
likely
respond
with

Hunter
Biden’s
legal
woes
as
well
as

make
comments
about

President
Biden’s
mental
agility.

Does
this
sound
like
the
sort
of
environment
where
two
people
will
shake
hands
before
or
after?

Meanwhile,

the
rumor
mill
is
playing
a
guessing
game
as
to
whether
the
Biden
campaign
will
accept
cryptocurrency
donations,

following
a
move
by
Trump
to
do
so.

Don’t
bet
on
it,
Polymarket
bettors
say,
giving
it
just
a
14%
chance
of
happening
by
June
21.

The
Guardian
published
an

article
Sunday
depicting
prediction
markets
and
their
supporters
in
an
unflattering
light,
associating
them
with
convicted
fraudster
Sam
Bankman-Fried
and
with
“scientific
racism.”
Now
there’s
a
prediction
market
on
whether
the
U.K.
newspaper
will
correct
the
story.

Forecasters
on

Manifold.markets
see
an
84%
chance
that
the
Guardian
will
correct
at
least
one
of
the
factual
statements
in
the
article.
The
contract
will
resolve
to
“yes”
if
the
publication
acknowledges
an
error
in
an
editor’s
note,
makes
a
“stealth
edit,”
or
removes
the
piece
entirely.

Unlike
Polymarket,
where
bets
are
settled
in
cryptocurrency,
Manifold
is
a
self-described
“play
money”
market.
Bets
are
made
in
a
digital
(not
crypto)
currency
called
mana.
Users
start
with

200
mana
for
free
and
can
buy
more.
They
can’t
cash
out.
The
pitch
for
betting
on
Manifold
is
that
it
allows
participants
to
build
a
reputation
as
accurate
forecasters.

The
Guardian
article

claimed
that
former
FTX
CEO
Bankman-Fried
“funneled”
nearly
$5
million
of
the
crypto
exchange’s
customers’
funds
to
a
nonprofit
called
Lightcone
Infrastructure.
Lightcone,
the
piece
said,
used
the
money
to
buy
a
former
hotel
in
Berkeley,
Calif.
FTX
trustees
are
seeking
the
return
of
the
allegedly
misappropriated
funds,
according
to
the
Guardian.

Last
week,
the
former
hotel
was
the
venue
for
the

Manifest
2024
conference
on
prediction
markets
and
forecasting
hosted
by
Manifold
and
Manifund.
The
latter
organization
is
a
nonprofit
that
helps
fund
charitable
projects
(the
Guardian
misdescribed
it
as
a
prediction
market).
The
piece
highlighted
controversial
statements
some
of
the
conference
speakers
have
made
about
topics
unrelated
to
prediction
markets.

On
X
(formerly
Twitter),
Oliver
Habryka,
Lightcone
Infrastructure’s
CEO,
identified

five
factual
errors
with
the
piece
(including
the
mischaracterization
of
Manifund).

Habryka
said
he
isn’t
considering
legal
action
against
the
Guardian,

posting
on
X
that
“U.K.
libel
law
is
pretty
insane,
and
I
would
feel
terrible
wielding
it
against
anyone.”

The
Stanley
Cup
finals
looked
like
a
sure
thing
for
the
Florida
Panthers
until
this
weekend’s
game—the
fourth
in
the
series—when
the

Edmonton
Oilers
demolished
the
competition,
winning
8-1.

But
this
momentum
didn’t
do
much
for
Edmonton’s
chances
at
winning
the
Stanley
Cup,
according
to
prediction
markets,
only
resulting
in
a
three
percentage
point
gain,

from
7%
to
10%,
putting
Florida’s
chances
of
victory
at
90%.

Sportsbooks
are
giving
Edmonton
a
slight
edge
when
compared
to
Polymarket,
but
not
by
much:

BetMGM’s
book
is
giving
the
Oilers
8.25
over
the
Panthers’
1.08,
which
converts
to
the
Oilers
having
a
12%
chance.
Other
sportsbooks
are
giving
similar
odds,
with
Oilers
coming
in
at
12%
to
13%.

Florida
just
needs
to
win
one
more
game
to
finish
the
series
and
take
home
the
Stanley
Cup.
That
next
game
is
back
on
home
ice,
where
the
Oilers
have
consistently
lost.