The Protocol: Polymarket Feeds Political Junkies, With Nate Silver

It’s
hard
enough
keeping
up
with
the
twists
and
turns
that
have
already
happened
in
this
year’s
U.S.
presidential
race.
To
keep
tabs
on
the
political-news
handicapping
within
the
predictions-betting
site
Polymarket
(built
atop
the
Polygon
blockchain)
is
to
also
keep
up
with
what’s
likely
to
happen
in
the
future.
Read
on.

Polymarket
CEO
Shayne
Coplan
(Polymarket)

PLAYING
POLITICS:
When
the
predictions-betting
site
Polymarket

raised
$70
million
in
fresh
funding
in
May,
CEO
Shayne
Coplan

tweeted
that
it
was
“most
gratifying”
seeing
“widespread
adoption”
of
the
platform
as
an
“alternative
news
source.”
It
was
exactly
the
sort
of
deflection-flex
one
might
expect
from
a
startup
executive
enjoying
his
liquidity
moment.
But
as
this
year’s
U.S.
presidential
election
lurches
from
one
surprise
to
the
next,
Coplan’s
assessment
appears
to
be
right
on
the
money.
Just
over
the
past
couple
weeks,
blockchain
bettors
have
used
the
platform
(built
atop
the
Polygon
blockchain)
to:
wager
on

President
Joe
Biden’s
chances
of
winning
reelection;
gamble
on

Vice
President
Kamala
Harris’s
odds
of
replacing
him
as
the
Democratic
nominee;
handicap
Biden’s
performance
during
a

press
conference
and

ABC
TV
interview;
bid
up
former
President
Donald
Trump’s
likelihood
of
victory
following
an

attempted
assassination;
and
assess
the
appeal
of
his
vice
president
pick,

Sen.
J.D.
Vance
(R-Ohio).
A
new
breed
of
crypto
degenerates
have
popped
up
on
the
social-media
site
X,
posting
their
winning
betting
slips,
with
one
lucky
soul
claiming
to
have

netted
more
than
$400,000
on
a
single
punt.
It
should
be
noted
that
none
of
this
Polymarket
gambling
is
legal
in
the
U.S.,
since
the
project
was

barred
in
2022
from
doing
business
in
the
country
under
a
settlement
with
the
Commodity
Futures
Trading
Commission
that
also
came
with
a
$1.4
million
fine.
Even
so,
there’s
some
speculation
that
prediction
markets
might
get
increasingly
cited
by
news
outlets
whose
political
coverage
previously
relied
on
polls
or
pundits.
To
underscore
the
point,
Axios

broke
the
story
this
week
that
Polymarket
had
hired
the
widely
followed
statistician
and
journalist
Nate
Silver
as
an
adviser.
Silver
told
the
publication
in
an
interview
that
he
expected
“more
of
the
investor
class
to
leverage
prediction
markets
to
assess
the
risk
of
politics
on
their
businesses.”
Anyone
care
to
bet?

SCOOP:


Richard
Kim,
founder
of
crypto
casino
Zero
Edge,
who
previously
had
served
as
an
executive
at
Michael
Novogratz’s
Galaxy
as
well
as
the
Wall
Street
banks
JPMorgan
and
Goldman
Sachs,
has
acknowledged

losing
at
least
$3.67
million
of
the
company’s
funds
on
bitcoin
trades
that
went
sour
as
the
cryptocurrency’s
price
tumbled
in
June.
(H/t
to
CoinDesk’s
Sam
Kessler
for
breaking
the
news.)

The

Federal
Reserve
Bank
of
New
York
posted
a
job
opening
for
a
“digital
assets
market
specialist,”
at
a
mid-senior
level
with
a
pay
range
of
$136,800
to
$230,000
a
year.
Desired
attributes
include
“familiarity
with
datasets
relevant
for
digital
asset
markets”
and
“ability
to
convey
complex
subject
matter
to
senior
audiences.”

Larry
Fink,
CEO
of
BlackRock,
the
world’s
largest
money
manager,
said
on
CNBC
that
bitcoin
is
a
“legitimate
financial
instrument”
for
“when
you
believe
that
countries
are
debasing
their
currency
by
excess
deficits.”
The
comment
was
seen
by
commentators
as
a

remarkable
endorsement
of
the
largest
cryptocurrency,
giving
“boomer
advisors
comfort
and
cover
to
make
the
allocation.”

The
Cambodian
currency
exchange
and
payments
company

Huione
Pay

received
over
$150,000
worth
of
crypto
associated
with
the
North
Korean
hacking
outfit
Lazarus,

Reuters
reported
on
Monday.
According
to
two
blockchain
analysts,
the
wallet
was
“used
by
Lazarus
hackers
to
deposit
funds
stolen
from
three
crypto
companies
in
June
and
July
last
year,
mostly
via
phishing
attacks,”
the
article
said.
Huione
Pay’s
board
said
it
did
not
know
it
had
“received
funds
indirectly”
from
the
hacks.

Australian
computer
scientist
and
one-time
Satoshi
Nakamoto
claimant

Craig
Wright
has
been

forced
to
update
his
personal
website
with
a
legal
notice
declaring
that
he
is
not
the
inventor
of
Bitcoin,
and
that
he
is
“not
the
author
of
the
Bitcoin
white
paper.”

Top
picks
of
the
past
week
from


our
Protocol
Village

column,
highlighting
key
blockchain
tech
upgrades
and
news.

Chromia’s
architecture
(Chromia)

1.
Chromia,
blockchain
ecosystem
that
aims
to
avoid
network
congestion
partly
by
giving
every
decentralized
app
(dapp)
its

own
cluster
of
nodes
and
computational
resources,
has
gone
live
on
mainnet,
“marking
the
beginning
of
the
relational
blockchain
era,”
according
to
the
team:
“The
mainnet
launch
marks
the
genesis
block
of
the
new
native
CHR
token
and
will
enable
the
current
CHR
token,
which
was
issued
as
ERC-20
and
BEP-20,
to
be
bridged
to
the
MVP
mainnet.
The
MVP
Mainnet
also
includes
staking
delegation
process,
payment
of
network
hosting
fees
and
provider
payouts.”

2.
Polygon
Labs,
the
main
developer
firm
behind
the
layer-2
blockchain
Polygon,
released
on
Tuesday
the
latest
version
of
its
zero-knowledge
proving
system,
“Plonky3”
–
designed
to
be
more
flexible
than
the
previous
model.
Polygon
Plonky3
is
now
available
as

open-source
software
under
the
popular
MIT
and
Apache
licenses,
according
to
the
company.

3.
Waves
blockchain
ecosystem
founder
Sasha
Ivanov
has
launched
a
fully
functional
testnet
for

Units.network,
“an
innovative
ecosystem
of
interoperable
blockchains
built
atop
the
Waves
platform,”
according
to
the
team:
“This
significant
development
introduces
a
comprehensive
Layer
2
solution,
utilizing
a
re-staking
approach
to
create
a
fully
decentralized
network
that
enables
the
seamless
deployment
of
interconnected
blockchains,
all
supported
by
existing
Waves
validators.

4.
Pyth,
a

blockchain
oracle
protocol,
has
officially
launched
its
newest
product,


Express
Relay,
on
mainnet,
according
to
the
team:
“The
launch
introduces
a
novel
decentralized
solution
to
the
long-standing
problem
of
MEV
in
processing
liquidations
and
market-efficiency
enhancing
transactions
in
DeFi
–
once
thought
to
be
an
inevitable
characteristic
of
on-chain
finance.
The
primitive
connects
DeFi
protocols
directly
with
a
network
of
established
searchers
through
protocol-controlled
auctions
for
events
like
liquidations.
Searchers
who
have
already
integrated
include
Flow
Traders,
Wintermute,
Auros,
Flowdesk,
Caladan,
Tokka
Labs
and
Swaap
Finance.”

5.

Ava
Protocol,
recently

renamed
from
OAK
Network
and
describing
itself
as
an
“intent-based
infrastructure
that
empowers
private
autonomous
transactions,”
has
launched
its
mainnet
on
Ethereum
as
an
EigenLayer
AVS
for
smart
contract
automation,
“enhancing
Web3
transaction
efficiency,
privacy
and
composability,”
according
to
the
team:
“This
enables
developers
to
integrate
event-driven
super-transactions
without
custom
code,
simplifying
complex
on-chain
operations,
offering
advanced
capabilities
beyond
the
Ethereum
Virtual
Machine,
supporting
automated
tasks
like
payments
and
dynamic
NFT
minting.
This
follows
a
successful
testnet
and
leverages
pooled
security
from
Ethereum
validators,
positioning
Ava
Protocol
to
revolutionize
smart
contract
automation.”

A
mix
of
volunteers
and
hackers
playing
music
at
EthBerlin
in
May.
(Amitoj
Singh/CoinDesk)

It
might
just
sound
like
music.

But
a
group
of
programmers,
working
on
a
project
known
as
“CarnationFM,”
have
devised
a
means
of
embedding
a
hidden
encrypted
message
of
up
to
250
kilobytes
a
minute
into
music
files.

The
music
is
broadcast
through

Swarm,
a
decentralized
data
storage
solution
operating
on
the
Ethereum
blockchain.

“Anybody
can
listen
to
the
music
or
the
song,”
said
one
of
the
collaborators,
and
“anybody
can
download
it,
but
only
the
people
that
hold
a
public
key
can
actually
see
the
encrypted
message.”

The
project,
winner
of
the
Best
Social
Impact
award
at
the
EthBerlin
conference
in
May,
drew
inspiration
from
Portugal’s
so-called

Carnation
Revolution
in
1974,
which
relied
on
a
disc
jockey’s
song
selection
to
signal
the
start
of
a
coup
that
ultimately
led
to
the
overthrow
of
an
authoritarian
government.

Click
here
for
the
full
article
by
CoinDesk’s
Amitoj
Singh

Fundraisings

Deals
and
grants

Scene
from
New
York’s
Le
Poisson
Rouge,
where
tickets
are
bought
via
Aptos-based
KYD
(Julia
Pagano)

Data
and
Tokens

Regulatory
and
Policy