Republicans Look Set to Clinch Electoral Sweep, Echoing Polymarket Bets

The
U.S.’s
Republican
Party
seems
set
to
keep
control
of
the
House
of
Representatives,
completing
its
trifecta
after
flipping
the
Senate
and
White
House
in
the
2024
election
cycle.

As
of
press
time,
the
AP
had
called
409
(out
of
435)
seats,
with
Democrats
winning
199
seats
to
the
Republicans’
210.
The
first
party
to
reach
218
seats
will
win
the
majority,
and
as
of
Thursday
evening,
Republicans
appeared
to
be
within
reach
of
that
goal
—
confirming
odds
on

betting
site
Polymarket,
where
traders
gave
Republicans
at
least
51%
odds
and
growing
starting
at
8:00
p.m.
EST
Tuesday
night.
As
of
press
time,
bettors
gave
Republicans
a
98.5%
chance
of
winning
the
House.

As
of
6:30
p.m.
EST
Thursday,
Republicans
led
in
at
least
14
races,
out
of
the
27
remaining,
according
to
AP
results,
meaning
if
these
results
hold,
they’ll
have
the
majority
for
at
least
another
two
years.

In
Alaska,
Republican
Nick
Begich
held
a
roughly
10,000-vote
lead
against
Democrat
Mary
Peltola
—
who
received
backing
from
the
crypto-aligned
Fairshake
super
PAC
—
with
76%
of
votes
counted.

In
Arizona,
David
Schweikert,
a
longtime
Congressman
who
co-founded
the
Congressional
Blockchain
Caucus,
held
a
roughly
10,000-vote
lead
with
just
under
70%
of
the
total
votes
counted.
Republican
Eli
Crane
also
held
a
slim
lead.

Democrat
Greg
Stanton
held
a
much
larger
lead
against
his
Republican
opponent
in
the
race
for
another
of
Arizona’s
House
seats,
while
Juan
Ciscomani
—
who
also
enjoyed
Fairshake
backing
—
trailed
very
narrowly
with
70%
of
votes
reported.

In
Iowa,
Republican
Mariannette
Miller-Meeks
held
a
0.2%
lead
against
Democrat
Christina
Bohannan,
suggesting
the

race
could
go
to
a
recount.

In
Nebraska,
Republican
Don
Bacon
held
a
somewhat
larger
margin,
leading
by
3%
of
the
votes
with
95%
of
the
total
votes
counted.

In
Washington,
Republican
Dan
Newhouse
appears
set
to
win
against
a
fellow
Republican,
meaning
this
race
will
not
benefit
the
Democrats
at
all.
That
brings
Republicans
to
217
seats.

If
these
results
hold,
Democrats
would
need
to
sweep
their
races
in
California,
which
has
12
races
yet
to
be
called
by
the
AP,
as
well
as
win
in
the
other
districts
they’re
leading,
to
regain
the
House.
Republicans
are
leading
in
seven
of
these
races
at
press
time,
though
some
races
have
just
over
52%
of
their
results
counted.

Fairshake-backed
Republican
candidates
in
California
include
David
Valadao
(leading
by
10%
and
56%
counted),
Michael
Garcia
(leading
by
just
over
2%
and
69%
counted),
Young
Kim
(leading
by
13%
and
71%
counted)
and
Michelle
Steel
(leading
by
just
over
4%
and
70%
counted).

Republicans
Ken
Calvert
(just
under
3%
lead
with
76%
reporting),
John
Duarte
(just
under
a
3%
lead
with
52%
reporting)
and
Scott
Baugh
(0.4%
lead
with
73%
reporting)
are
also
in
the
lead
in
their
races.

While
it
is
entirely
possible
some
of
these
races
flip
by
the
time
all
votes
are
counted,
as
of
press
time
Republicans
look
set
to
hold
224
seats,
a
two-seat
improvement
over
the
118th
Congress.

On
Polymarket,
bettors
gave
this
outcome

an
86%
chance
as
of
press
time,
up
from
around
20%
when
polls
began
to
close
on
Tuesday
night.
The
scenario
in
which
Republicans
hold
215
to
219
seats
has
the
second-greatest
chance,
at
21%.