Polymarket Retains Loyal User Base a Month After Election, Data Shows

During
the
dog
days
of
summer,
Polymarket’s
election
betting
surged
on
(correct)
speculation
that
the
Democrats
would
make
a
“hot
swap”
of
Joe
Biden
for
Kamala
Harris
as
their
presidential
candidate.
Trading
volume
grew
and
grew
through
the
fall.
All
along,

doubts
lingered
about
whether
the
platform’s
trader
base
would
hold
steady
after
the
ballots
were
cast.

On
Election
Day,
the
research
arm
of
gaming
and
VC
giant
Animoca
put
out
a

report
with
a
bold
prediction:
there’s
nothing
for
Polymarket
to
worry
about.
The
crypto-based
prediction
market,
according
to
the
report,
had
a
significant
base
of
non-election
bettors
to
carry
it
through.

Naturally,
there
would
be
smaller
numbers
–
what
can
be
as
captivating
as
a
political
face-off
involving
Donald
Trump?
–
but
it’d
be
a
far
cry
from
a
ghost
town.
Three-quarters
of
Polymarket
users,
Animoca
noted,
trade
contracts
unrelated
to
the
election.

A
month
later,
that
analysis
is
looking
right.

A
key
data
point
to
track
is
the
open
interest
on
Polymarket.
Open
interest,
which
is
the
total
value
of
active
positions
in
Polymarket’s
prediction
markets,
reflects
the
platform’s
liquidity,
user
activity,
and
overall
market
engagement.

Data
from
a

Dune
Analytics
dashboard
shows
that
while
open
interest
hit
peaked
just
above
$475
million
on
Election
Day
–
and,
predictably,
significantly
declined
in
the
days
after
–
it
has
been
ticking
back
up
in
the
last
week.

The
data
shows
open
interest
dropped
to
a
low
of
$93.91
million
on
November
12,
then
slowly
climbed
to
$104
million
by
November
15
and
further
to
$115.25
million
by
November
30.
These
aren’t
bad
numbers
for
Polymarket
by
any
means,
because
this
is
where
open
interest
was
in
mid-September,
when
election
fever
was
in
full
swing.

Similarly,

daily
volumes,
while
down
sharply
from
their
$367
million
peak
the
day
after
the
election,
have
plateaued
in
the
mid-
to
high
eight
figure
range,
which
is
still
higher
than
they
were
in
September.

The
next
metric
to
look
at
is
the
number
of
active
wallets
on
the
platform.

In
the
last
week,
this
metric
–
which
reflects
the
number
of
traders
active
on
the
platform
–
has
been
hovering
around
the
mid-30,000
mark,
which
isn’t
substantially
lower
than
the
weeklong
run-up
to
election
day,
when
there
were
an
average
of
39,100
active
wallets
at
work.

And
is
Polymarket
reliant
on
a
few
whales
to
drive
volume?
Not
really.

Data
shows
that
around
60%
of
all
bets
are
coming
in
under
$100,
and
only
5.8%
of
bets
are
between
$1,000
and
$5,000.

Polymarket
is
here
to
stay,
but
dark
clouds
remain.
It
needs
to

work
through
its
legal
issues,
which
may
soon
be
resolved
if
President-elect
Trump
installs
a
crypto-friendly
financial
regulatory
regime.

Influencer
Mea
Culpa

A
social
media
influencer

involved
in
a
Kalshi
plot
to
bash
Polymarket
and
its
founder,
Shayne
Coplan,
has
apologized
for
a
post
in
which
he
called
Coplan
the
“n-word”
and
said
he
“look[ed]
guilty.”

“I
was
doing
other
business
with
Kalshi
and
just
tweeted
it,”
Antonio
Brown
wrote
on
X
(formerly
Twitter)
Saturday.
“I
want
to
say
sry
to
Shayne
Coplan.”

Earlier,
Clown
World,
an
influencer
account
that
regularly
tweets
Kalshi-related
content,
deleted
a
post
calling
Coplan
and
convicted
fraudster
Sam
Bankman-Fried
lookalikes.

Kalshi’s
CEO,
Tarek
Mansour,
has
previously
declined
to
comment
on
the
record.

Markets
Missed
Biden
Pardon

Hunter
Biden,
the
wayward
son
of
President
Joe
Biden,

was
pardoned
Sunday,
a
move
that
surprised
many
–
including
traders
on
Polymarket.

The
pardon
covers
all
offenses
committed
in
a
ten-year
period
between
January
1,
2014,
and
December
1
of
this
year,
a
statement
from
the
White
House
reads.
This
covers
Hunter’s
tax
and
gun
charges
–
in
addition
to
any
undetected
crimes.

Before
the
pardon
announcement,
contracts
representing
the
yes
side
of
the
question
were
trading
around
28
to
30
cents,
reflecting
a
28%
to
30%
chance
a
pardon
would
happen.
Now
that
the
White
House
has
confirmed
the
executive
grant
of
clemency,
these
contracts
shot
up
to
100%,
which
means
they
will
pay
out
1
USDC,
each
worth
$1,
per
share.

The
market
was
skeptical
a
pardon
would
happen,

given
multiple
pledges
by
the
President
that
it
would
not.

In
June,
the
elder
Biden
promised
to
respect
a
jury
decision
regarding
a
gun
charge
and
not
pardon
his
son.
At
the
time,
the
market
was
giving
a
12%
chance
of
a
pardon.

Data
aggregator

Polymarket
Analytics
shows
that
the
top
holder
of
the
yes
side,
a
user
who
goes
by
“PollsR4Dummies”
took
home
$223,472
on
his
bet
of
$87,740.

The
polling
skeptic
is
also
holding
two
long-shot
yes
positions,
betting
that
Fox
News
personality
Pete
Hegseth
will
be
confirmed
as
Secretary
of
Defense,
currently
at
32%

given
recent
sexual
assault
allegations,
and
that
the
Fed
will
cut
interest
rates
three
times
in
2024
(the
market
gives
this
a
29%
chance).