Polymarket Contradicts Its Oracle Service in Rarity for Prediction Market

Polymarket
has
signaled
it
may
overrule
UMA,
a
decentralized
oracle
service
that
referees
the
fast-growing
platform’s
crypto-based
prediction
markets.

Controversy
has
been
brewing
for
days
since
UMA
resolved
a
market
asking
whether
it
was
more
likely
than
not
that
Barron
Trump,
son
of
the
former
U.S.
president,
was
involved
in
a
meme
coin
called
DJT.
The
oracle
service
decided
several
times
the
answer
was
“no,”
and
holders
of
“yes”
shares
protested.

On
Wednesday,
Polymarket
said
it
believed
UMA
got
it
wrong,
and
it
would
soon
announce
a
fix.

Polymarket’s
surprise
move
is
the
latest
wrinkle
in
the
two-week-long
saga
of
DJT,
a
Trump-themed
memecoin
that
neither
the
Trump
campaign
nor
Barron
has
acknowledged
or
denied
being
involved
in.

“This
market
will
resolve
to
‘Yes’
if
a
preponderance
of
evidence
suggests
that
Barron
Trump
was
involved
in
the
creation
of
the
Solana
token
$DJT.
Otherwise
this
market
will
resolve
to
‘No,'”
the
contract
on
Polymarket
read.
“Determination
as
to
whether
Barron
was
involved
in
the
creation
of
$DJT
will
be
made
by
this
market’s
decentralized
resolver,
UMA,
and
will
take
into
account
all
available
evidence
as
of
12
PM
ET,
June
23.”

Whenever
the
outcome
of
a
prediction
market
is
disputed,
UMA,
a
decentralized
“optimistic”
oracle,
is
brought
in
to
resolve
it
with
UMA
tokenholders
voting
on
the
outcome.
In
the
case
of
the
DJT
market,
an
overwhelming
majority
of
UMA
holders
voted
for
the
“no”
resolution.

In
total,
bettors
put
more
than
$1
million
on
the
line,
and
amid
the
radio
silence
from
the
Trump
family
and
campaign,
Martin
“Pharma
Bro”
Shkreli,
a
convicted
felon,
has
been
adamantly
making
public
statements
that
Barron
was
involved.

On
Wednesday,
Shkreli
posted
a
series
of
screenshots
on
X
purporting
to
show
one
of
his
associates
saying
that
he’s
“trying
to
get
Barron
to
come
out
of
his
shell,”
but
that
lawyers
are
likely
advising
the
former
president’s
son
not
to
talk.

This
isn’t
the
first
time
UMA
as
a
method
of
contract
resolution
has
faced
controversy.
Questions
on
what
it
meant
to
“find”
the
missing
OceanGate
submersible,
which
imploded
near
the
wreckage
of
the
Titanic,

put
its
relationship
with
Polymarket
in
the
spotlight
last
fall.

In
May,
this
relationship
was
once
again
tested
when
some
bettors

questioned
if
an
Ethereum
exchange-traded
fund
(ETF)
was
approved
–
UMA
resolved
the
contract
to
yes
–
or
if
it
was
still
working
its
way
through
the
bureaucratic
leviathan
of
the
Securities
and
Exchange
Commission.

Polymarket
CEO
Shayne
Coplan
didn’t
immediately
respond
to
a
request
for
comment
about
what
the
fix
for
this
current
UMA
controversy
would
be,
or
the
timeline
for
its
implementation.

The

DJT
token
is
down
7%
on-day,
according
to
on-chain
data.