Live Updates: Crypto and the 2024 U.S. Election

MH
(10:10
p.m.
ET)
Bitcoin
is
up
8%
on
a
24-hour
basis
at
$73,415.45
according
to
CoinDesk
data
and
nearing
its
previous
all-time
high
just
shy
of
$73,8000,
likely
reflecting
enthusiasm
over
positive
early
returns
for
Trump.
Other
data
sources
have
BTC
already
past
ATH.

JH
(10:00
p.m.
ET)
The
Fairshake
58,
as
predicted,
are
so
far
blazing
their
way
into
Congress
with
no
losses
yet
among
the
races
called
by
the
Associated
Press.
The
House
of
Representatives
will
get
a
lot
of
new
names
who
received
heavy
crypto
backing,
plus
the
return
of
several
incumbents
with
records
of
industry
support,
such
as
Representative
William
Timmons.
The
South
Carolina
Republican
is
a
member
of
the
House
Financial
Services
Committee,
the
committee
that’s
made
the
most
progress
in
crypto
legislation,
and
has

authored
a
bill
himself.
Other
newly
minted
House
members
will
be
Wesley
Bell,
a
Missouri
Democrat,
and
Sarah
McBridge,
a
Delaware
Democrat.
This
marks
the
first
dozen
wins
for
Fairshake.

ND
(10:00
p.m.
ET)
Utah
and
Montana
are
expected
to
support
Donald
Trump,
the
AP
reported.

CL
(9:40
p.m.
ET)
Democratic
Senator
Kirsten
Gillibrand
has
been
re-elected
in
New
York.
Gillibrand,
along
with
Sen.
Cynthia
Lummis
(R-Wyo.)
(who
is
not
running
for
reelection
in
2024)
introduced
a
bipartisan
stablecoin
bill
earlier
this
year
and
has
been
a
strong
supporter
of
the
crypto
industry.

ND
(9:15
p.m.)
The
AP
called
Ohio
and
Texas
for
Donald
Trump,
growing
his
electoral
college
lead
to
177
votes,
versus
Kamala
Harris’
99.
The
Ohio
Senate
race
between
Democrat
Sherrod
Brown
and
Republican
Bernie
Moreno
appears
to
be
too
close
to
call,
and
has
been
see-sawing
between
the
two
candidates
all
night.
Roughly
51%
of
votes
have
been
counted,
with
Moreno
seeing
a
slight
lead
as
of
press
time,
AP
said.

JH
(9:05
p.m.
ET)
The
wins
keep
coming
in
the
Fairshake
58,
with
nine
victories
so
far
called
by
the
Associated
Press,
including
the
first
Democrat:
Rob
Menendez
Jr.
from
New
Jersey,
the
son
of
Senator
Bob
Menendez.
The
latest
wins
among
Fairshake-backed
Republicans
include
Riley
Moore
of
West
Virginia,
Craig
Goldman
of
Texas
and
Tom
Cole
of
Oklahoma.

ND
(9:05
p.m.
ET)
The
AP
has
called
Wyoming,
North
Dakota,
South
Dakota,
two
of
Nebraska’s
districts
and
Louisiana
for
Donald
Trump,
bringing
him
to
120
electoral
college
votes.
Kamala
Harris
is
projected
to
win
the
state
of
New
York,
bringing
her
total
to
99
EC
votes.

ND
(8:40
p.m.
ET)
The
AP
is
projecting
Kamala
Harris
won
the
states
of
Illinois,
New
Jersey
and
Delaware,
adding
to
her
electoral
college
total
with
71
overall
EC
votes.
Donald
Trump
is
projected
to
win
Arkansas,
bolstering
his
electoral
college
lead
by
bringing
it
to
101
total
votes.

JH
(8:39
p.m.
ET)
Representative
Andy
Barr,
a
Republican
from
Kentucky,
will
keep
his
seat
in
the
House
of
Representatives,
bringing
in
almost

two
thirds
of
the
vote
in
the
ongoing
tally
on
election
night.
That
means
he’ll
likely
stay
in
the
running
for
taking
over
the
gavel
in
the
House
Financial
Services
Committee
if
Republicans
retain
the
House.

Barr
had
put
himself
forward
to

replace
the
retiring
Patrick
McHenry
to
lead
the
committee
that’s
been
the
tip
of
the
spear
for
crypto
legislation
in
Congress.
In
this
election,
Barr
had
been
among
the
58
congressional
candidates
backed
by
industry
PAC
Fairshake,
so
the
crypto
sector
has
hopes
for
him.

He’s
among
at
least
five
early
winners
among
the
Fairshake
candidates,
with
no
losses
on
the
board,
yet.

ND
(8:15
p.m.
ET)
Democratic
Senator
Elizabeth
Warren,

bête
noire
of
the
digital
assets
industry,
kept
her
seat
after
facing
a
challenge
from
Republican
(and
crypto
supporter)
John
Deaton
in
Massachusetts.

Warren,
one
of
the
most
crypto-skeptical
members
of
Congress,
ran
well
ahead
of
Deaton,
a
consumer
attorney
perhaps
best-known
in
crypto
circles
for
his
work
with
XRP
holders
in
the
U.S.
Securities
and
Exchange
Commission’s
case
against
Ripple.

Deaton
told
CoinDesk
in
September
that
he
expected
the
race
to
be
close,
though

polling
through
October
suggested
he
never
ran
less
than
20
points
behind
Warren.

“This
race
is
winnable,”
he
said
at
the
time.
“I
believe
that
we’re
going
to
be
pleasantly
surprised
at
how
competitive
this
race
is
going
to
be.”

ND
(8:10
p.m.
ET)
The
Associated
Press
is
projecting
Donald
Trump
won
the
states
of
Oklahoma,
Missouri,
Florida,
Alabama,
Tennessee
and
South
Carolina,
while
Kamala
Harris
won
the
states
of
Massachusetts,
Maryland,
Connecticut
and
Rhode
Island.
Trump
now
has
95
electoral
votes,
to
Harris’
35.

In
more
local
results,
Republican
Brian
Jack
will
represent
Georgia
in
the
House
of
Representatives
for
the
next
two
years.
Jack
received
$1.3
million
from
Defend
American
Jobs,
a
political
action
committee
affiliated
with
the
Fairshake
super
PAC.
In
New
Jersey,
Democratic
Congressman
Andy
Kim
will
succeed
Senator
Bob
Menendez
in
representing
the
Garden
State
in
the
Congressional
body.

Trump’s
odds
of
winning
the
election
have
risen
to
as
much
as
70
cents
on

Polymarket,
though
had
dropped
slightly
to
68.5
cents
as
of
press
time.

CL
(7:42
p.m.
ET)
Republican
Jim
Justice
has
won
a
senate
seat
in
West
Virginia,
replacing
outgoing
Democratic
Senator
Joe
Manchin.
Justice,
the
current
governor
of
West
Virginia,
received
over
$3
million
from
pro-crypto
super
PAC
Fairshake.
He
has
previously
said
that
he
supports
a
“clear
regulatory
framework”
for
digital
assets
and
is
against
the
creation
of
a
U.S.
central
bank
digital
currency
(CBDC).
His
win
brings
Republicans
one
step
closer
to
potentially
flipping
the
U.S.
Senate
from
Democrat
control.

The
Associated
Press
projected
Donald
Trump
would
win
West
Virginia’s
electoral
college
votes,
bringing
his
total
to
23.

TC
(7:40
p.m.
ET)

Bitcoin
and
Solana
rise
as
Trump
Polymarket
odds
in
Georgia
and
Pennsylvania
surge

BTC
and
SOL
are
up
1.7%
in
the
last
30
minutes
and
trading
at
$70,800
and
$170
respectively,
possibly
because
of
former
President
Donald
Trump’s
rising
odds
in
the
swing
states
of
Georgia
and
Pennsylvania.
Bettors
on
Polymarket
now
give
Trump
a
79%
chance
of
winning
Georgia,
compared
to
68%
as
of
6:25
p.m.
ET,
and
a
58%
chance
of
winning
Pennsylvania,
compared
to
54%.

ND
(7:05
p.m.
ET)
Rep.
Jim
Banks
(R-Ind.)
won
election
to
the
U.S.
Senate,
AP
reported
just
past
7:00
p.m.
ET,
and
will
succeed
Sen.
Mike
Braun,
who
successfully
ran
for
governor
of
the
state.
Banks,
who
defeated
Democrat
Valerie
McCray,
received
$3
million
in
support
from
Defend
American
Jobs,
a
political
action
committee
affiliated
with
the
Fairshake
super
PAC.

The
AP
also
said
Sen.
Bernie
Sanders
won
reelection
to
represent
the
state
of
Vermont;
Donald
Trump
is
projected
to
win
the
electoral
votes
from
Kentucky
and
Indiana,
while
Kamala
Harris
will
win
Vermont’s
electoral
votes.

Mark
Messmer,
an
Indiana
state
legislator
who
received
$500,000
in
backing
from
Defend
American
Jobs,
won
election
to
the
U.S.
House
representing
the
state.

TC
(6:25
p.m.
ET)
WHAT’S
POLYMARKET
SAYING
ABOUT
THE
SWING
STATES?

Users
of
crypto
betting
site
Polymarket
seem
to
think
that
Trump
has
the
advantage
over
Harris
in
a
number
of
swing
states.

As
of
around
23:40
UTC,
the
market
is
giving
Trump
54%
odds
of
winning

Pennsylvania,
a
68%
chance
in

Georgia
and
in

North
Carolina,
56%
in

Nevada,
and
82%
in

Arizona.
Harris,
meanwhile,
is
leading
in

Michigan
with
61%
odds
of
winning.
The
two
candidates
are
tied
in

Wisconsin.
At
the
time
of
writing,
these
markets
each
have
between
$9
million
and
$25
million
in
bets.

Polling
aggregates
from
FiveThirtyEight
show
Harris
and
Trump
neck-to-neck
in
Pennsylvania
and
Nevada,
with
Trump
leading
Harris
in
Georgia,
North
Carolina,
and
Arizona.
Harris
has
the
advantage
in
Michigan
and
Wisconsin.

The
Super
Model’s
analysis
of
top-performing
Polymarket
traders’
state-level
bets
has

flipped.
It
now
favors
Trump
to
win
the
electoral
college
281-257.
Polymarket
as
a
whole
sees
him
winning
297-241.

The
reversal
“suggests
early
bits
of
data
are
good
for
Trump
but
not
yet
understood
by
the
broader
market,”
where
the
signal
has
mainly
stagnated,
says
trader
Flip
Pidot.
“The
battlegrounds
have
gone
from
showing
Harris
undervalued
in
7/7
states
to
now
just
4/7
(with
Trump
undervalued
in
Michigan,
Arizona
and
Pennsylvania).”

CRYPTO
LOOKING
FOR
A
LIFT

Crypto
is
hoping
for
an
post-election
lift,
because
it’s
been
an
ugly
year
for
most
major
crypto
assets
so
far.
The
CoinDesk
20
—

an
index
of
the
top
20
cryptocurrencies
by
market
capitalization,
excluding
stablecoins
and
exchange
tokens
—
is
up
12%
on
the
year,
that’s
mostly
thanks
to
bitcoin

(BTC),
which
has
gained
59%.
Bitcoin
is

weighed
at
31%
in
the
index,
while
ether

(ETH)
is
worth
20%.
The
fact
that
these
two
assets
are
up
year-to-date
means
that
the
bloodbath
suffered
by
most
of
the
other
cryptocurrencies
in
the
index
has
been
somewhat
concealed.

Polygon

(MATIC)
has
plunged
71%
since
the
start
of
the
year,
despite
the
breakout
success
of
betting
website
Polymarket,
which
is
hosted
on
the
blockchain.
Cosmos

(ATOM),
polkadot

(DOT)
and
avalanche

(AVAX)
—
smart
contract
platforms
that
rose
to
prominence
in
2021
—
also
performed
badly,
down
64%,
55%,
and
41%
each.
Ether,
of
course,
has
disappointed
expectations
despite
gaining
its
own
spot
exchange-traded
funds,
but
at
least
the
coin
is
up
6%.

The
real
winner
of
the
year
is
dogecoin

(DOGE),
up
76%
since
December.
It’s
worth
noting
that
the
original
memecoin
put
in
most
of
that
performance
in
the
last
couple
of
months;
the
coin
began
rising
in
early
September
alongside
bitcoin
and
former
President
Donald
Trump’s
odds
on
Polymarket,
just
as
Tesla
creator
Elon
Musk
ramped
up
his
efforts
to
help
Trump
get
re-elected.

JH
(4:30
p.m.
ET)
FAIRSHAKE
HAS
MOVED
ON
TO
2026

If
the
crypto
sector
enjoys
what
Fairshake
did
with
its
mountain
of
money,
the
firms
will
probably
like
2026,
too.
Of
the
$169
million
raised
in
this
cycle,
officials
of
those
affiliated
political
action
committees
said
about
$30
million
was
left
over
for
the
next
congressional
elections.

That
$30
million
paired
with
another

$25
million
promised
from
Coinbase
Inc.
(COIN)
and
a

$23
million
commitment
from
a16z
—
both
said
to
be
planned
for
the
opening
of
the
next
cycle
—
will
start
the
industry
PAC
off
with
a
whopping
$78
million
for
an
election
cycle
that
doesn’t
even
include
a
presidential
race.
The
campaign-finance
dominance
from
the
crypto
industry
is
only
just
beginning
with
Fairshake’s
2024
performance,
it
seems.
Starting
with
the
GMI
PAC
in
2022,
the
sector
has
a
definite
strategy
toward
a
crypto-friendly
U.S.
Congress.

WHAT
THE
BIGGEST
TRADERS
ON
POLYMARKET
SAY

Flip
Pidot,
co-founder
and
CEO
of
American
Civics
Exchange,
an
over-the-counter
dealer
in
political
futures
contracts
…
“curated
a
list
of
the
top
performing
traders
on
Polymarket
and
built
an

electoral
college
forecast
based
on
their
bets
alone.
As
of
mid-afternoon
Tuesday
in
New
York,
this
“elite”
model
projects
Harris
will
win
276-251,
whereas
Polymarket
as
a
whole
sees
Trump
winning
287-262.

DIVIDED
CONGRESS
MAY
BE
…
GOOD?

The
best
way
to
get
a
good
crypto
bill
at
this
point
—
meaning
one
that
will
last
and
stand
up
to
party
politics
—
would
be
if
the
chambers
of
Congress
remained
divided,
as
they
are
now,
argued
Jaret
Seiberg,
a
longtime
financial
policy
analyst
in
Washington.

“That
matters
as
we
see
policy
stability
as
critical
to
the
further
development
of
the
crypto
sector,”
Seiberg
argued.
A
bill
driven
entirely
by
one
side
of
the
aisle
becomes
an
easy
target
when
the
tables
turn.

FINAL
OUTCOME
OF
2024
POLLING
IS
A
SHRUG

Two
of
the
most
prominent
U.S.
polling-analysis
operations
–
538
and
Nate
Silver’s
Silver
Bulletin
—
based
in
similar
statistical
and
political
modeling,
both
concluded
after
careful
study
that
the
outcome
of
the
presidential
election
is
…
a
total
mystery.
Both
operations
suggested
Vice
President
Kamala
Harris
has
an
advantage
so
slight
that
it’s
laughably
unhelpful
in
the
polling
world,
in
which
margins
of
error
knock
any
meaning
out
of
such
a
tight
conclusion.

In
a

hundred
election
simulations
run
by
538,
stirring
in
the
witches
brew
of
battleground
analysis
and
economic
conditions,
she
wins
50
matchups
to
former
President
Donald
Trump’s
49.
The
other
goes
to
an
electoral-college
tie,
which
favors
Trump.
In
most
scenarios,
Harris
easily
wins
the
popular
vote
—
an
outcome
without
political
meaning,
thanks
to
the
U.S.’s
electoral-college
approach
to
the
election.

Nate
Silver’s
own
secret
sauce,
he
needed
to
stretch
the
decimal
places
to
indicate
the
distinction:
Of
80,000
final
simulations
run
by
his
site,

Harris
won
50.015%
of
the
time,
to
Trump’s
49.985%.

All
seven
battleground
states
have
been
so
close
that
they’re
within
the
polling’s
margins
of
error,
as
well,
leaving
this
closely
examined
contest
a
genuine
coin
toss,
according
to
the
analytical
gurus.

FAIRSHAKE
SET
UP
FOR
A
HAPPY
ELECTION
NIGHT

Crypto’s
campaign-finance
arm
Fairshake

drew
so
much
attention
in
the
2024
elections,
and
for
good
reason,
since
the
industry
dominated
the
political
donations
scene
with
its
$169
million
war
chest.
But
the
Fairshake
political
action
committee
and
its
affiliate
PACs
—
backed
mostly
by
crypto
firms
including
Coinbase,
Ripple
and
a16z
—
devoted
their
spending
to
congressional
races
only,
choosing
not
to
get
into
the
presidential
contest.
The
outcome:
The
effort
is
almost
guaranteed
to
pay
off
with
at
least
a
couple
of
dozen
new
members
of
Congress
that
crypto
dollars
helped
into
Washington.

And
Fairshake
made
a
careful
division
of
its
party
giving
(managing
to
anger
both
sides
in
the
process).
Its
final
list
of
58
congressional
candidates
the
groups
supported
included
30
Democrats
and
28
Republicans.
Many
of
those
were
already
incumbents
and
crypto
allies,
but
the
PACs
pursued
a
strategy
during
the
primaries
to
help
elevate
crypto-friendly
winners
in
districts
in
which
their
candidate’s
party
was
strongly
favored
to
win
in
the
general.
That
way,
the
general
election
is
meant
to
be
a
night
of
victorious
news.

The
same
strategy
worked
for
its
earlier
iteration,
GMI,
in
the
2022
congressional
elections.

CRYPTO’S
OHIO
RISK

Crypto
PAC
Fairshake’s

biggest
focus
was
in
Ohio,
where
the
PACs
dedicated
tens
of
millions
to
sink
crypto
skeptic
Sherrod
Brown,
the
state’s
longtime
Democratic
senator,
and
lift
blockchain
entrepreneur
Bernie
Moreno,
a
Republican.

The
industry
arm
took
a
controversial
risk
with
this
one.
Sherrod
Brown
is
the
chairman
of
the
Senate
Banking
Committee,
which
will
likely
have
a
major
hand
in
whatever
crypto
legislation
clears
Congress.
If
the
Republican
challenger
doesn’t
manage
to
knock
Brown
off,
the
crypto
industry
has
cemented
its
antagonistic
relationship
with
Brown
as
he
keeps
walking
the
Senate
halls
—
a
possibility
that
has
some
in
crypto
lobbying
circles
nervous.

However,
this
chess
is
definitely
three-dimensional.
Because
the
Senate
is
statistically
more
likely
to
swing
into
Republican
hands
in
this
cycle,
the
committee
chair
may
be
Senator
Tim
Scott,
a
Republican
from
South
Carolina.
And
he’s
recently
come
out
as
super
excited
about
crypto.
So,
the
industry
might
be
able
to
clear
a
Senate
bill
without
Brown’s
support
if
the
crypto
industry
fails
to
get
Moreno
into
that
chamber.

The
U.S.
crypto
industry
is
waiting
with
bated
breath
for
the
results
of
the
2024
election.

Nearly
$200
million
from
crypto-aligned
political
action
committees
has
gone
into
supporting
favored
candidates,
but
some
of
the
biggest
races
remain
too
close
to
guess
who
may
win.

CoinDesk
will
cover
the
election
results
live
over
the
coming
day
(or
days,
depending
on
how
things
go),
with
market
commentary
and
up-to-the-minute
alerts
on
major
races
we’re
following
–
and
how
they
may
affect
the
crypto
industry’s
chances
for
legislation,
regulatory
updates
and
more
across
the
coming
months.
The
biggest
race
is
obviously
the
U.S.
presidential
election,
with
Kamala
Harris
facing
off
against
Donald
Trump.

Polls
begin
closing
on
the
east
coast
at
7:00
p.m.
EST,
but
due
to
the
tight
nature
of
some
of
the
races
we’re
following,
we
may
not
learn
results
immediately.
Significant
lawmakers
running
for
reelection
include
Sherrod
Brown,
the
Ohio
Democrat
who
runs
the
Senate
Banking
Committee,
Elizabeth
Warren,
Jon
Tester
and
Debra
Fischer.

Read
more:



Here’s
Why
Today’s
U.S.
Election
Matters
for
Crypto

The
electoral
map
favors
Republicans
regaining
the
majority
in
the
Senate.
Similarly,
Democrats
are
expected
to
regain
the
majority
in
the
House
of
Representatives.

In
the
House,
there’s
an
open
question
as
to
who
will
succeed
retiring
Congressman
Patrick
McHenry,
who
chairs
the
powerful
House
Financial
Services
Committee.
A
handful
of
Republican
lawmakers
are
running
to
lead
their
party
on
the
committee.

Crypto
political
action
committees,
including
the
Fairshake
super
PAC
and
its
affiliated
entities,
Defend
American
Jobs
and
Protect
Progress,
have
supported
dozens
of
candidates
across
the
House
and
Senate.

We’ll
also
be
keeping
an
eye
on
the
prediction
markets,
especially
crypto-based
betting
site
Polymarket.
For
the
last
few
months,
these
markets
have
mostly
favored
Trump
winning,
although
Polymarket
has
given
him
higher
odds
than
U.S.-regulated
exchange
Kalshi
and
other
platforms.

Right
now,
Trump
is
ahead
by
23.4
points
at
61.7%

on
Polymarket.
An

aggregate
of
eight
prediction
markets
(plus
Nate
Silver’s
forecast)
built
by
trader
Flip
Pidot
of
American
Civics
Exchange
gives
Trump
a
more
modest
the
lead
with
16
points
at
58.1%