Is This the End of Bitcoin’s 4-Year Bull/Bear Market Cycle?

With
Bitcoin’s
halving
event
just
around
the
corner,
it
certainly
seems
like
we’re
on
the
cusp
of
something
big.
While
everyone’s
eyes
are
glued
to
the
skyrocketing
bitcoin

(BTC)
price
and
the
possibility
of
record-breaking
highs,
the
ripple
effects
are
far-reaching.
They
will
touch
every
corner
of
the
crypto
market,
and
could
even
signal
an
end
to
crypto’s
four-year
bull/bear
cycle.

This
feature
is
part
of
CoinDesk’s
“Future
of
Bitcoin”
package
published
to
coincide
with
the
fourth
Bitcoin
“halving”
in
April
2024.

Daniel
Polotsky
is
the
founder
of
CoinFlip.

Yet,
it’s
not
just
about
the
numbers;
it’s
about
the
potential
for
a
seismic
shift
in
how
we
perceive
and
interact
with
digital
currency.
Brace
yourself
—
this
could
be
the
beginning
of
a
whole
new
era
for
crypto.

Bitcoin’s
value
has
surged
of
late,
buoyed
by
anticipation
surrounding
the
upcoming
halving
event
in
April,
alongside
milestones
like

the
approval
of
spot
bitcoin
exchange-traded
funds
in
the
U.S.
and
major
financial
institutions

such
as
BlackRock
publicly
entering
the
space.
This
institutional
interest
has
led
to
unprecedented
demand,
with

bitcoin
hitting
a
new
all-time
high
above
$73,000
on
March
13.
This
was
likely
driven
by
record-breaking
inflows
into
ETFs,
including
a

$1.045
billion
influx
on
March
12.

This
transition
marks
a
more
widespread
acknowledgment
of
cryptocurrencies
as
a
legitimate
asset
category,
marking
the
onset
of
a
new
phase
in
institutional
investment.
It
has
also
further
bolstered
Bitcoin’s
credibility
and
accessibility
to
retail
investors.

These
landmark
developments
enable
investors
to
gain
exposure
to
Bitcoin
without
the
complexities
associated
with
direct
ownership.
The
increased
liquidity
and
stability
will
likely
continue
to
attract
a
broader
range
of
investors,
driving
greater
mainstream
adoption
and

helping
further
fuel
the
current
surge
in
bitcoin’s
valuation.

See
also:



Spot
Bitcoin
ETFs
Are
Just
the
Beginning
for
Wall
Street


|
Opinion

There
are,
of
course,
still
bears
out
there.
Yet,
with
projections

ranging
from
$150,000
to
$250,000
per
coin,
the
bitcoin
market
is
on
the
brink
of
a
substantial
inflow
of
institutional
capital.
This
will
signal
a
potential
transformation
in
its
historical
cyclic
dynamic
that
would
drive
new
levels
of
growth
and
innovation
across
multiple
digital
asset
sectors.

Despite
the
apparent
bullish
momentum
in
the
cryptocurrency
market,
several
factors
could
disrupt
this
trajectory.
Persistent
inlation
may
prompt
tighter
monetary
policies,
affecting
riskier
assets
like
cryptocurrencies.
Sluggish
economic
growth
could
also
dent
investor
confidence,
diverting
attention
from
speculative
investments.

Another
short-term
concern
lies
in
the
bitcoin
mining
industry.
The
upcoming
2024
halving
event
is
expected
to
trigger
significant
consolidation
and
defaults,
as
cash-strapped
mining
firms
will
struggle
with
slimmer
profit
margins
and
high
operational
expenses.
This
could
force
them
to
dump
their
bitcoin
as
they
enter
bankruptcy,
which
may
keep
the
price
down.
Additionally,
regulatory
oversight
and
lack
of
funding
pose
challenges,
potentially
exerting
downward
pressure
on
prices.

Uncertainty
surrounding
the
2024
elections
adds
yet
another
layer
of
unpredictability.
Political
outcomes
could
lead
to
varying
regulatory
changes,
with
potential
shifts
in
the
U.S.
government’s
stance
towards
cryptocurrencies.
While
a
Republican
presidency
may
offer
a
more
favorable
regulatory
environment,
Democrats
might
become
more
receptive
to
the
industry
due
to
alignment
with
values
like
financial
inclusivity
and
environmental
sustainability.
This
may
potentially
foster
bipartisan
support
for
cryptocurrency
regulation.

Maybe
most
tantalizing
of
all
could
be
the

unanticipated
secondary
effects
of
the
halving.
While
historically
a
driver
of
bullish
cycles,
the
halving’s
impact
may
be
overshadowed
by
the
other
factors
mentioned
above,
such
as

staggering
ETF
net
inflows.
Total
net
inflows
have

surpassed
$15
billion.

The
strategic
intervention
of
institutions
and
retail
ETF
investors
guided
by
more
experienced
financial
advisors
adept
at
“buying
the
dip,”
looms
large
as
a
factor
that
could
potentially
dampen
the
halving’s
effectiveness
in
driving
the
market
forward.

This
would
mean
the
end
of

crypto’s
typical
four
year
bull/bear
cycle,
seemingly
tied
to
the
bitcoin
halving,
and
instead
suggest
a
trajectory
of
relatively
stable
upward
growth,
with
ETF
inflows
emerging
as
the
primary
catalyst
for
crypto
adoption.
It’s
notable
that
this
is
the
first
time
bitcoin’s
price
has
rocketed
up

before
the
halving,
which
in
year’s
prior
has
preceded
bitcoin
bull
runs.

This
shift
could
have
profound
effects
across
the
industry.
Initially,
crypto’s
ethos
was
rooted
in
a
countercultural
resistance
against
centralized
currencies
and
institutions
with
the
mantra
“not
your
keys,
not
your
coin.”
Now
it
seems
the
predominant
force
in
crypto
could
soon
be
controlled
by
a
handful
of
institutions,
with
ownership
dispersed
among
individuals
who
lack
access
to
their
own
keys
—
contrary
to
the
original
ideals
of
decentralization.

A
tilt
towards
institutional
ownership
could
lead
to
something
even
bigger:
the
ownership
of
bitcoin
by
sovereign
nations.
More
countries
may
follow

El
Salvador’s
lead
and
initiate
a
race
to
accumulate
cryptocurrency,
potentially
initiating
a
global
mainstream
adoption
super
cycle.

See
also:



Qatar’s
Sovereign
Fund
Might
Be
Buying
Bitcoin

This
change
might
also
lead
to
a
departure
from
the
intense
boom-and-bust
cycles
traditionally
associated
with
cryptocurrency
markets,
fostering
a
more
stable
environment
for
growth
and
development
within
the
sector.

While
fewer
retail
investors
will
experience
the
euphoria
of
a
bull
market,
the
good
news
is
that
they
will
also
be
spared
the
brutal
reality
of
buying
at
the
peak
and
getting
their
face
ripped
off
as
the
market
plummets.

This
new
stability
could
provide
crypto
companies
and
projects
with
the
opportunity
to
focus
on
sustainable,
long-term
development,
rather
than
timing
market
cycles
and
facing
extreme
headwinds
during
crypto
winters.

As
investors
and
enthusiasts
prepare
for
heightened
volatility,
it’s
evident
that
the
market
is
on
the
brink
of
unprecedented
growth
and,
potentially,
a
fundamental
paradigm
shift.
While
it
is
bittersweet,
this
upcoming
period
could
be
viewed
as
the
end
of
cryptocurrency’s
infancy,
marking
a
significant
evolution
in
its
history.
Before
saying
goodbye,
we
should
all
be
ready
to
celebrate
its
Last
Dance.