Joe
Biden’s
odds
of
being
the
Democratic
nominee
for
president
overtook
those
of
his
vice
president,
Kamala
Harris
following
his
first
press
conference
in
months,
according
to
traders
on
crypto-based
prediction
market
platform
Polymarket.
Traders
at
one
point
gave
him
a
51%
shot
of
being
the
nominee,
way
up
from
33%
earlier
in
the
day,
according
to
a
contract
on
Polymarket.
The
odds
were
recently
back
down
to
45%.
Meanwhile,
Harris’
probability
of
getting
the
nod
dipped
as
low
as
37%
before
rebounding
to
42%
at
press
time.
Biden’s
chance
of
victory
in
November
stands
at
13%,
less
than
Harris’
15%,
according
to
Polymarket.
Former
President
and
likely
Republican
nominee
Donald
Trump
remains
the
favorite
to
win
the
White
House.
“Yes”
shares
in
Polymarket’s
contract
for
Trump
recently
traded
at
61
cents,
and
will
pay
out
$1
per
share
(in
USDC,
a
stablecoin,
or
cryptocurrency
pegged
to
the
dollar)
if
he
wins
and
zilch
if
not,
meaning
the
market
gives
him
61%
odds
of
victory.
Biden
slurred
his
words
several
times
during
the
press
conference
and
mistakenly
referred
to
Harris
as
“Vice
President
Trump,”
but
he
also
spoke
in
depth
about
foreign
policy
issues
following
a
NATO
summit
and
at
one
point
his
voice
neared
a
yell
as
he
talked
about
American
children
getting
killed
by
guns.
The
president
reiterated
that
he
plans
to
stay
in
the
race
but
acknowledged
“it’s
important
that
I
allay
fears”
about
his
condition.
Concerns
about
his
age
and
cognitive
health
have
led
to
widespread
calls
among
prominent
Democrats
and
donors,
including
actor
George
Clooney,
for
the
president
to
step
aside,
despite
his
insistence
he
is
staying
in.
Hundreds
of
millions
of
dollars
are
riding
on
the
election’s
outcome
on
Polymarket,
which
is
enjoying
a
breakout
year
despite
having
to
geofence
U.S.
users
under
a
regulatory
settlement.
The
platform’s
bets
are
programmed
into
smart
contracts
on
the
Polygon
blockchain.
UPDATE
(July
12,
2024,
00:51
UTC):
Rewrites
throughout
with
details
of
press
conference
and
price
updates.