Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
As Hong Kong begins its trading day, ETH is changing hands above $4600, down 3% on-day.
As ETH is up nearly 16% in the last week, and 45% in the last month, this probably isn’t a concern for most traders. After all, the ETH/BTC ratio has broken above its 365-day moving average, a signal that has historically marked extended periods of ETH outperformance, and spot ETF flows are reinforcing the move.
However, the same data shows early warning signs of near-term cooling, as CryptoQuant argued in a recent report.
Daily ETH inflows to exchanges have surpassed Bitcoin’s, suggesting some holders are positioning to take profits. ETH’s MVRV ratio against BTC has risen from 0.4 in May to 0.8, approaching historical overvaluation territory. CryptoQuant warns that in past cycles, such levels have preceded pauses or pullbacks in ETH’s relative strength.
Trading desks echo this view.
In a recent note, France-based FlowDesk reports that while there were $1 billion in single-day ETH ETF inflows on Monday, with broad client buying versus BTC and SOL, there were also increased call overwriting in ETH options at the $7K–$8K strikes for December — a sign some are capping upside expectations.
QCP framed ETH’s rally within a macro backdrop of softer headline CPI in its daily Asia Color telegram update, with strong expectations for a September Fed cut, and geopolitical easing, but flags upcoming Jackson Hole remarks and remaining CPI/NFP prints as potential sentiment pivots.
Market maker Enflux added in comments to CoinDesk that a hotter-than-expected PPI print reminded traders that inflation risks remain uneven, and that ETH’s outsized performance could invite consolidation.
While the structural drivers remain intact, ETF demand, institutional participation, and favorable on-chain signals, the market is entering a phase where stretched positioning and macro event risk could test ETH’s momentum. As CryptoQuant’s data shows, the rally is strong, but so are the early signs of profit-taking.
Market Movers
BTC: Bitcoin fell over 3% from record highs after hotter U.S. inflation dampened rate cut hopes and the Treasury signaled it will not expand Bitcoin purchases for its strategic reserve.
ETH: ETH is down 3.3% as sell pressure increases, as traders take profit after a record rally.
Gold: Gold fell 0.62% to $3,336.6 as hotter U.S. inflation and strong jobs data boosted the dollar and yields, trimming expectations for a large September Fed rate cut.
Nikkei 225: The Nikkei 225 opened higher as Japan’s economy grew an annualized 1.0% in Q2, beating forecasts on strong exports and capital spending, though analysts warn U.S. tariffs could slow growth in the coming months.
S&P 500: U.S. stocks stalled Thursday as a hotter-than-expected PPI dampened hopes for a large September rate cut. Goldman Sachs warns its models show elevated odds of an S&P 500 drop, citing low volatility and growing tariff risks.