12 Future Bitcoin Scenarios: From Bullish to Bearish

Just
over
three
years
ago,
at
the
start
of
the
last
bull
cycle,
I
spoke
with
experts
in
the
space
to
write
“The
Future
of
Bitcoin:
12
Scenarios
From
Bullish
to
Bearish.”

Much
has
changed
since
then.
The
price
of
bitcoin
was
around
$25,000
when
I
began
my
reporting,
which
then
seemed
astronomically
high.
No
one
had
heard
of
SBF,
Bitcoin
Ordinals
or
ChatGPT.
No
one
owned
a
Bitcoin
ETF.

So
as
Bitcoin
enters
its

fourth
halving
this
April,
it’s
time
to
refresh
and
revamp
these
scenarios,
once
again
ranging
from
bullish
to
bearish.
And
once
again
we
vaguely
defined
the
“future”
as
ten
years
from
now
–
far
enough
so
there’s
room
for
play
and
close
enough
so
there’s
a
link
to
reality.

This
feature
is
part
of
CoinDesk’s



“Future
of
Bitcoin”
package


published
to
coincide
with
the
fourth
Bitcoin
“halving”
in
April
2024.

There’s
one
thing
that
hasn’t
changed
in
our
methodology:
A
humble
acknowledgement
that
we’re
all
flying
blind,
and
no
one

really
knows
what
will
happen
with
bitcoin.
That’s
part
of
the
appeal.
“Most
of
the
biggest
use
cases
10
years
from
now
will
be
things
that
would
sound
insane
to
us
today,”
Elizabeth
Stark
told
me
in
2021.
“Kind
of
like
how
an
encyclopedia
that
anyone
can
edit
would
have
sounded
crazy
to
people
in
the
pre-Wikipedia
era.”

Welcome
to
the
future(s)
of
bitcoin,
ranging
from
regulatory
hell
to
telepathic
DeFi.

Cory
Klippsten,
CEO
of
Swan,
imagines
that
in
10
years
bitcoin
can
finally,
truly,
be
used
in
a
mainstream
way
to
pay
for
things
like
coffee
and
beer
and
donuts.
“By
2035,
you’ll
be
able
to
buy
most
goods
and
services
around
the
world
in
sats,”
predicts
Klippsten.

This
doesn’t
mean
he
thinks
bitcoin
will
fully
replace
the
dollar.
He
envisions
that
most
goods
will
have
“two
price
tags”
—
one
in
fiat,
one
in
bitcoin.
“It
won’t
have
replaced
all
fiat
currency,”
says
Klippsten.
“We’re
going
to
live
in
a
multi-currency
world,
as
we
always
have.”

There
are
over
3
billion
gamers
on
the
planet.
Des
Dickerson,
CEO
of
THNDR
Games,
envisions
a
future
where
these
billions
of
gamers
are
getting
rewarded
in
bitcoin,
thanks
to
the
speed
of
the
Lightning
Network.
“Bitcoin
should
be
the
native
currency
of
the
internet,”
says
Dickerson.
“So
it
goes
without
saying
that
bitcoin
should
inherently
exist
in
games.”

This
is
all,
of
course,
still
very
much
just
theoretical.
THNDR
already
has
1.5
million
users,
says
Dickerson,
but
acknowledges
that
“we
won’t
see
massive
adoption
until
there’s
a
viral
game
that
has
bitcoin
in
it.”

In
the
very
first
line
of
his
white
paper,
Satoshi
Nakamoto
describes
bitcoin
as
peer-to-peer
electronic
cash
that
would
“allow
online
payments
to
be
sent
directly
from
one
party
to
another
without
going
through
a
financial
institution.”

These
words
have
been
discussed
and
parsed
for
over
15
years.
For
many
in
the
space,
they’re
more
iconic
and
inspirational
than
“We
hold
these
truths
to
be
self-evident.”
And
the
key
clause,
for
many,
is
“without
going
through
a
financial
institution.”

Which
is
why
bitcoin’s
biggest
story
of
2024
—
the
emergence
of
ETFs
—
is
something
of
an
awkward
dynamic.
Isaiah
Jackson,
author
of
“Bitcoin
and
Black
America,”
sees
the
ETFs
as
a
double-edged
sword.
On
the
one
hand,
yes,
the
ETFs
have
unleashed
a
pipeline
of
new
capital,
which
Jackson
believes
will
“pump
the
price
sky
high.”
(So
far
the
charts
agree.)
But
then
again,
the
ETF-injected
capital
gives
more
power
to
the
Blackrocks
and
Fidelities
of
the
world.
“If
you
have
enough
bitcoin
you
can
buy
lobbyists,”
says
Jackson.
“And
you
can
convince
them
[politicians]
of
things
like,
‘Hey,
we
need
to
control
bitcoin
mining.’”

The
concern
is
shared
by
Wendy
O,
host
of
The
O
Show
(and
former
CoinDesker).
She
acknowledges
the
very
real
benefits
of
“ethically
grifting”
on
the
tailwinds
of
bitcoin’s
ETF-driven
price
surge,
but
also
envisions
a
scenario
where
“TradFi
steps
in
and
governs
bitcoin
for
us.”

As
AI
continues
to
advance,
we’ll
soon
see
the
rise
of
“smart
agents”
that
can
do
things
like
book
our
flights,
pay
our
bills
and
order
us
Thai
food.

“No
one
is
giving
AIs
a
bank
account,
but
bitcoin
is
perfect
as
a
natively-digital
means
for
AI
to
transact,”
says
David
Johnston,
lead
contributor
to
the
Morpheus
project,
which
is
building
a
decentralized
platform
for
AI
agents
to
transact
and
spend
crypto.
(Morpheus
is
technically
“chain
agnostic,”
but
the
potential
for
bitcoin
seems
clear.)

The
role
of
bitcoin
and
AI
doesn’t
stop
at
spending
sats.
“If
you
have
a
smart
agent
that
can
send
transactions
or
access
DeFi,
you
have
a
whole
new
set
of
tools
accessible
to
you,”
says
Johnston.
Just
as
ChatGPT
made
it
easier
for
non-coders
to
program
using
plain
English,
in
the
future,
says
Johnston,
you
can
easily
use
advanced
DeFi
tools
without
any
technical
knowledge,
and
without
using
a
bank.

Johnston
gives
a
quick
example.
“Let’s
say
I
wanted
to
earn
native
bitcoin
yield,
with
no
wrapping,
no
bridges,
and
no
third
parties.”
This
is
tough
for
a
layperson.
(Not
that
a
layperson
would
ever
say
the
words
“native
bitcoin
yield,”
but
you
get
the
picture.)
With
AI-empowered
bitcoin,
says
Johnston,
you
could
just
say
something
like,
“I
want
my
bitcoin
to
earn
some
yield
in
a
safe
and
decentralized
manner,”
and
it
would
do
the
research
to
find
solid,
reputable,
non-custodial
solutions,
and
“not
some
crap
that
a
YouTube
influence
is
shilling.”

Of
all
the
bitcoin
crystal
balls,
this
is
perhaps
the
foggiest.
“We
have
no
idea
what’s
going
to
happen
with
regulation,”
says
Wendy
O.
She’s
encouraged
by
the
pro-bitcoin
policies
in
El
Salvador,
but
worries
that
in
the
United
States
there’s
“so
much
red
tape,
so
many
public
servants
in
so
many
different
sectors,
and
nobody
knows
what
they’ll
classify
it
as.”
She
sees
an
outright
ban
of
bitcoin
as
unlikely,
but
fears
the
government
could
“make
it
hard
to
participate
in
the
ecosystem.”

Or
perhaps,
as
Jackson
suspects,
the
government
creates
“some
sort
of
bottleneck”
for
converting
bitcoin
to
fiat,
such
as
forcing
you
to
first
convert
it
into
a
CBDC
(Central
Bank
Digital
Currency).
The
way
Jackson
sees
it,
if
the
value
of
1
bitcoin
soars
to
$1
million
in
ten
years
—
and
if
they
have
to
use
the
government’s
digital
currency
as
an
offramp
—-
then
that
will
“trap
a
lot
of
people
into
getting
the
CBDC,
and
I
think
that’s
what
they
want
for
surveillance
and
control.”

Klippsten
acknowledges
the
risk
of
regulation,
but
suspects
that
the
politics
will
eventually
play
to
bitcoin’s
favor.
“Rules
change
according
to
the
will
of
the
population,”
says
Klippsten.
“At
some
point,
there
will
be
a
lot
of
people
that
own
mostly
bitcoin…and
they’ll
make
things
extremely
difficult
for
politicians
who
get
in
their
way.”

This
scenario
flows
directly
from
the
last.
If
the
government
somehow
succeeds
in
choking
or
over-regulating
bitcoin,
says
Jackson,
then
there
will
naturally
be
a
desire
for
“black
market
bitcoin”
—
bitcoin
that’s
off
the
government’s
grid.
People
who
earn
bitcoin
from
home
mining,
for
example,
or
own
bitcoin
that’s
tougher
(if
not
impossible)
to
track
with
tools
like
Chainanalysis.

These
concerns
aren’t
new.
The
FBI
has
been
tracking
bitcoin
for
over
a
decade,
which
some
view
as
solid
law
enforcement
and
others
see
as
a
surveillance
nightmare.
So
if
the
tracking
and
regulation
escalates,
we
could
live
in
a
world
of
“two
bitcoins,”
or
“shadow
bitcoins,”
where
perhaps
people
pay
one
price
for
Tracked
Bitcoin
and
a
premium
for
Shadow
Bitcoin.

Then
again,
while
Jackson
acknowledges
the
concern,
he
also
views
this
as
pragmatically
difficult
for
the
government
to
execute.
When
we
reach
mainstream
adoption,
says
Jackson,
there
will
literally
be

billions
of
bitcoin
wallets,
so
“good
luck
trying
to
stop
all
of
it.”

This
one’s
dead-simple,
but
sometimes
the
simplest
scenarios
are
the
most
likely.
Don’t
sleep
on
common
sense.
“Bitcoin’s
core
value
proposition
is
a
global,
digital
store
of
value,”
says
Anthony
Pompliano,
aka
“Pomp”
of
Pomp
Investments.
“There
are
other
potential
use
cases
which
may
come
to
fruition,
but
the
core
proposition
is
the
one
that’s
most
likely
to
last
for
decades.”

Pomp
even
sees
a
generational
shift.
He
says
that
bitcoin
now
serves
as
“the
benchmark
for
many
young
investors,”
similar
to
how
the
S&P
500
is
a
benchmark
for
stock-pickers.
“If
they
can’t
beat
bitcoin’s
performance,”
says
Pomp,
“they
simply
’buy
the
index.’”

Back
in
early
2021,
well
before
the
explosion
of
AI-hype,
Elizabeth
Stark
told
me
that
she
envisions
a
future
where
“Machines
will
pay
machines,
natively,
instantly,”
and
that
“Teslas
will
pay
for
charging
with
Lightning”
over
the
bitcoin
network.

Three
years
later,
her
prediction
looks
even
more
likely.
It
seems
probable
that
machines
and
even
robots,
at
some
point,
will
need
to
spend
money.
And
“robot”
doesn’t
have
to
mean
the
Terminator.
It
could
be
as
simple
as
The
Internet
of
Things.
And
what
are
the
odds
that
these
robots
or
machines
will
be
spending
U.S.
dollars
from
their
accounts
at
Wells
Fargo?

“Bitcoin,
stablecoins,
and
digital
currencies
are
going
to
be
the
currency
of
choice
for
many
automation
use
cases,”
says
Pomp,
who
argues
that
machines
seeking
instantaneous
settlement
“will
be
unable
to
use
electronic
money
because
of
the
multi-day
settlement
times.
This
is
where
bitcoin
or
stablecoins
could
really
shine.”

This
might
seem
like
a
well-trodden
or
even
boring
topic
for
those
who
follow
the
crypto
space
closely,
but
you’ll
get
a
weird
look
if
you
ask
a
random
person
in
the
grocery
store,
“What
do
you
think
of
bitcoin
ordinals?”
(Also,
please
don’t
do
this.)
Ordinals
are
not
yet
anywhere
close
to
mainstream.
But
in
10
years
they
could
be,
and
that
could
transform
everything
about
the
world
of
digital
collectibles,
making
2021’s
NFT
Summer
look
quaint
by
comparison.

“Once
we
start
to
get
closer
to
mass
adoption,
I
think
that
people
will
begin
to
use
ordinals,
because
they
are
more
secure
than
NFTs,”
says
Wendy,
who
also
suspects
this
is
“still
a
long
ways
away.”

“I
know
this
is
not
super
exciting,”
says
Cas
Piancey,
cohost
of
the
Crypto
Critics’
Corner
podcast,
“But
what
I
suspect
is
going
to
happen
is
that
bitcoin
will
largely
be
used
for
the
exact
same
things
it’s
used
for
now.”

Piancey
is
a
self-described
crypto
cynic,
but
this
doesn’t
mean
he
loves
to
dunk
on
bitcoin.
He
can
see
the
nuance.
“When
people
argue
that
there

isn’t
a
use
case
for
bitcoin,
I
generally
disagree
with
that,”
he
says.
And
he
imagines
that
in
10
years,
bitcoin
will
still
be
used
on
the
margins
for
remittances;
it
will
still
be
used
sporadically
as
a
tool
for
dissidents;
and
still
held
by
many
as
a
store
of
value.

He’s
not
a
doomsdayer.
So
he
imagines
that
in
10
years
bitcoin
will
still
be
chugging,
but
cautions
that,
“People
who
say
it’s
going
to
be
the
next
world
currency
are
out
of
their
minds.”

Maybe
bitcoin
is
hacked
by
quantum
computing.
Maybe
there’s
a

51%
attack.
Maybe
bitcoin
is
gutted
by
ChatGPT7.

So
this
is
something
of
a
“catch-all
doomsday
scenario”
to
acknowledge,
with
humility,
that
we
don’t
know
what
we
don’t
know.
(I
explored
the
doomsday
risks
in
more
detail
in
the

original
piece.)
Many
in
the
space
say
that
bitcoin’s
dominance
is
“inevitable,”
but
very
little
in
life
is
truly
inevitable
—
just
ask
Thanos.

Isaiah
Jackson
is
as
bullish
on
bitcoin
as
you’ll
find,
but
even
he
acknowledges
that
a
hack
by
quantum
computing,
for
example,
is
still
theoretically
possible.
He
considers
the
risk
to
be
low
—
and
suspects
that
evil
quantum-hackers
would
focus
first
on
juicier
targets,
like
sovereign
nations
—
but
concedes
that
it’s
“always
a
risk.”

In
the
original
Future
of
Bitcoin
piece,
Jackson
provided
what
was
easily
the
most

fun
scenario:
That
at
some
point
bitcoin
will
be
spent
on
Mars.

Now
he’s
back
to
outdo
himself.

Jackson
has
been
thinking
about
Noland
Arbaughf,
who
is
paralyzed
below
the
shoulders.
Then
Arbaughf
became
the
first
patient
to
get
a
Neuralink
chip
implanted
in
his
brain,
and
now
he
can
play
chess
and
even
send
Tweets
just
by
thinking.
“It
was
like
using
the
force,”
Arbaughf
said
after
he
“thought”
a
tweet
into
existence.

So
Jackson
realized
something.
If
we
can
send
Tweets
just
by
thinking
in
2024,
it’s
only
a
matter
of
time
before
we
can
telepathically
send
bitcoin.
“The
dude
just
thought
a
tweet,
and
it
came
out,”
says
Jackson.
Someday
we’ll
think,
“Here’s
the
code
for
a
private
bitcoin
wallet.”